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1、ContentsBackground4Methaneemissionestimates5Upstreamanddownstreamoilandgas5Incompletecombustionofflares9Coalminemethane10Emissionsfromfuelcombustion(enduse)11Wasteandagriculture13Methaneabatementestimates14Marginalabatementcostcurvesforoilandgas14Well-headpricesusedinnetpresentvaluecalculation19Marg
2、inalabatementcostcurvesforcoalminemethane20Energypricesusedinnetpresentvaluecalculation24Projectionsofenergy-relatedmethaneemissionsandassessedtemperaturerises.26Glossary28Oilandgasabatementtechnologies28Coalminemethaneabatementtechnologies30Policyoptions33Policyexplorer34References38BackgroundTheIE
3、A,sestimatesofmethaneemissionsareproducedwithintheframeworkoftheIEA,sGlObalEnerqVandCIimateModnl(GEC).Since1993,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)hasprovidedmedium-tolong-termenergyprojectionsusingthislarge-scalesimulationmodeldesignedtoreplicatehowenergymarketsfunctionandgeneratedetailedsector-by-se
4、ctorandregion-by-regionprojectionsfortheWorldEnergyOutlook(WEO)scenarios.Updatedeveryyear,themodelconsistsofthreemainmodules:finalenergyconsumption(coveringresidential,services,agriculture,industry,transportandnon-energyuse);energytransformationincludingpowergenerationandheat,refineryandothertransfo
5、rmation(suchashydrogenproduction);andenergysupply(oil,naturalgasandcoal).Outputsfromthemodelincludeenergyflowsbyfuel,investmentneedsandcosts,greenhousegasemissionsandend-userprices.TheGECisaverydata-intensivemodelcoveringthewholeglobalenergysystem.Muchofthedataonenergysupply,transformationanddemand,
6、aswellasenergypricesisobtainedfromtheIEA,sowndatabasesofenergyandeconomicstatistics(andthroughcollaborationwithotherinstitutions.Forexample,fortheNetZeroby2050:ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySectorpublication,resultsfromboththeWEOandEnerqyTeChnolOqVPerSDeCtiVeS(ETP)modelshavebeencombinedwiththosefromtheI
7、nternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)一inparticulartheGreenhouseGas-AirPollutionInteractionsandSynergies(GAINS)model-toevaluateairpollutantemissionsandresultanthealthimpacts.And,forthefirsttime,resultswerecombinedwiththeIIASA,sGlobalBiosphereManagementModel(G1.OBIOM)toprovidedataonlan
8、duseandnetemissionsimpactsofbioenergydemand.TheGECalsodrawsdatafromawiderangeofexternalsourceswhichareindicatedintherelevantsectionsoftheGECdocumentation.ThecurrentversionofGECcoversenergydevelopmentsupto2050in29regions.DependingonthespecificmoduleoftheWEM,individualcountriesarealsomodelled:16indema
9、nd;113inoilandnaturalgassupply;and32incoalsupply(seeAnnexAoftheGECdocumentation).MethaneemissionestimatesTheGlobalMethaneTrackercoversallsourcesofmethanefromhumanactivity.Fortheenergysector,theseareIEAestimatesformethaneemissionsfromthesupplyoruseoffossilfuels(coal,oilandnaturalgas)andfromtheuseofbi
10、oenergy(suchassolidbioenergy,liquidbiofuelsandbiogases).Fornon-energysectors-waste,agricultureandothersources-referencevaluesbasedonpubliclyavailabledatasourcesareprovidedtoenableafullerpictureofmethanesources.UpstreamanddownstreamoilandgasOurapproachtoestimatingmethaneemissionsfromglobaloilandgasop
11、erationsreliesongeneratingcountry-specificandproductiontype-specificemissionintensitiesthatareappliedtoproductionandconsumptiondataonacountry-bycountrybasis.OurstartingpointistogenerateemissionintensitiesforupstreamanddownstreamoilandgasintheUnitedStates(Table1).TheUSGreenhouseGasInventory(USEPA5202
12、3)isusedalongwithawiderangeofotherpublicly-reported,credibledatasources.Thehydrocarbon-,segment-andproductionspecificemissionintensitiesarethenfurthersegregatedintofugitive,ventedandincompleteflaringemissionstogiveatotalof19separateemissionintensities.Table1.Categoriesofemissionsourcesandemissionsin
13、tensitiesintheUnitedStatesHydrocarbonSegmentProductiontypeEmissionstypeIntensity(massmethane/massoilorgas)OilUpstreamOnshoreconventionalVented0.36%OilUpstreamOnshoreconventionalFugitive0.09%OilUpstreamOffshoreVented0.36%OilUpstreamOffshoreFugitive0.09%OilUpstreamUnconventionaloilVented0.72%OilUpstre
14、amUnconventionaloilFugitive0.18%OilDownstreamVented0.004%OilDownstreamFugitive0.001%OilOnshoreconventionalIncomplete-flare0.06%OilOffshoreIncomplete-flare0.01%OilUnconventionalIncomplete-flare0.04%NaturalgasUpstreamOnshoreconventionalVented0.29%NaturalgasUpstreamOnshoreconventionalFugitive0.11%Natur
15、algasUpstreamOffshoreVented0.29%HydrocarbonSegmentProductiontypeEmissionstypeIntensity(massmethane/massoilorgas)NaturalgasUpstreamOffshoreFugitive0.11%NaturalgasUpstreamUnconventionalgasVented0.43%NaturalgasUpstreamUnconventionalgasFugitive0.17%NaturalgasDownstreamVented0.15%NaturalgasDownstreamFugitive0.10%TheUSemissionsintensitiesarescaledtoprovideemissionintensitiesinallothercountries.Thisscalingisbaseduponarangeofauxiliarycountry-specificdata.Fortheupstreamemissionintensities,thescalingisbasedonthea
