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1、StephaneHallegatteisseniorclimatechangeadvisoroftheWoridBank.FlorentMcIsaacissenioreconomistattheMacroeconomicModellingUnitoftheMacroeconomics.TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.HasanDuduisoneconomistftheMiddleEastandCentralAsiaDepartmentoftheInternationalMonetaryFund.CamillaKnudsenisane
2、conomistattheWorldBank.ChartJoosteisasenioreconomistattheMocroecorxjmicModellingUnitoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeattheWorldBank.HansAnandBeckistheprogramleaderforTurkeyintheWorldBankEquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutionsGroup.d!nEPETERSONINSTITUTEFOR嘴斗1.=IntfpnationalFconomics
3、WORKINGPAPER24-6MacroeconomicimplicationsofatransitiontonetzeroemissionsApproachesofandlessonsfromWorldBankGroupCountryClimateandDevelopmentReports,withanapplicationtoTurkeyStephaneHallegattezFlorentMcIsaaczHasanDudu,CharlJoostezCam川aKnudsenzandHansBeckMarch2024ABSTRACTIn2022theWorldBankGrouplaunche
4、danewcorediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).Publishedfor42economiessofar,CCDRsuseresilientandlow-emissiondevelopmentscenariostoidentifysynergiesandtradeoffsbetweendevelopmentandclimateobjectives.Thereareseveralmodelingchallengesassociatedwiththeanalysisofthemacroeconomicconse
5、quencesofthesedevelopmentpathways,includingthoserelatedtothenonmarginalnatureoftherequiredtransformation,theroleoftechnologies,andthereplacementoffossilfuel-basedassetswithgreenerones.Toaddresssomeofthesechallenges,severalCCDRshaveusedahybridmodelingapproachthatcombinesasetofsectoralanalyseswithmacr
6、oeconomicmodels.Specifically,sectoraltechno-economicmodelsareemployedtoconstructresilientandlow-emissiondevelopmenttrajectoriesinkeysectors.Themacroeconomicimplicationsofthesesectoraltransitionsarethenassessedbylinkingthesectoralmodelswithtwomacroeconomicframeworks:amultisectorgeneralequilibriumfram
7、eworkandanaggregatemacrostructuralmodel.Thishybridapproachcombinestheadvantagesofmultipletoolsandcapturesthevariousdimensionsofthetransition,includingtheneedtotacklemultiplemarketfailures,beyondtheemissionsexternality;analyzepriceandnonpricepoliciesandtheirinteractions;representexplicitlythereplacem
8、entofassetsandinfrastructure;assessthemacroeconomicfeasibilityofthesectoraltransitionsandtherequiredinvestments.ThispaperusesthecaseofTurkeytodescribethemethodologicalapproachandsummarizestheresultsoftheCCDRsthathavebeenpublishedtodate.Findingssuggestthat,despitelargeinvestmentneeds,thetransitioncan
9、1750MassachusettsAveshington,DC20+1,202.328.9000contributepositivelytoeconomicgrowth,especiallywhenindirectmitigationbenefitsaretakenintoaccountbutonlyifstructuralchallengescanbemanaged,climateanddevelopmentpoliciesarewelldesigned,andnegativeimpactsonsomesectorsorcommunitiesaremitigated.JE1.Codes:E6
10、0,Q43,Q54Keywords:Macroeconomicmodeling;climatechange;technologicalchangeAuthor,sNote:ThispaperpreparedforaconferenceonMQCroeCQnOmiCImQlicQtionsOfClimQteAetiononJune5-6,2023,atthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics(PIIE)isanextensionofthemethodologicalpaperfocusedonTurkey,availableasStephaneH
11、allegatte,FlorentMcIsaac,HasanDudu,CharlJooste,CamillaKnudsen,andHansBeck,2023,TheMQeroeConQmiCImQliCQtionsofQTrQnSitiQntoZeroNeiEmissions:AModelingFramework,PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10367,Washington:WorldBankGroup.ThisworkispartoftheanalyticalworkfortheWorldBankCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(C
12、CDR)forTurkeyandbenefitedfromthecontributionsoftheentireCCDRteam,especiallythemanycolleagueswhodevelopedthesectoralroadmapsonwhichthisworkisbased.TheauthorsthankinparticularthepeerreviewersoftheCCDR,includingdozenofWorldBankstaff,NickSternandAmarBhattacharya,whoprovidedinsightfulcommentsatvarioussta
13、geofthiswork.WealsothankEtienneEspagne,JeanPisani-Ferry,DilekSevinc,andMarcNolandfortheirhelpfulcommentsonthismanuscript;IoanaMarinescuandStefanoScarpettafortheirdetailedandconstructivediscussionnotes;andallparticipantsofthePIIEconferenceorganizedbyJeanPisani-FerryandAdamS.Posen.Allremainingerrorsan
14、dopinionsareourown.TheauthorsthankthemultidonorClimoteSUQQortFeleiIHYforfundingpartofthiswork.1. IntroductionIn2022theWorldBankGrouplaunchedanewcorediagnostictool:theCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR).Todate,38reportscovering42economieshavebeenpublished,withaplantoproducethemforallWorldBankcli
15、entcountriesoverthenexttwotofouryears.Seethereportsathttps:/www.worldbank.orv/en/publication/countrv-climate-develoTment-reports.CCDRsaimtohelpcountriesprioritizethemostimpactfulactionstoboostresilienceandadaptationtoclimatechangeandreducegreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswhiledeliveringonbroaderdevelopmen
16、tobjectives.MostoftheCCDRsexploreillustrative,ambitiouslow-emissiondevelopmentpathways(figure1).TheapproachesadoptedbyCCDRstoexplorethesepathwaysaretailoredtotheuniquecountrycontexts,includingclimatecommitments,incomelevel,potentialforrenewableenergyorland-basedemissionreductions,anddomesticdevelopmentpriorities.Theyconsiderwhatistechnically,economically,andpoliticallyfeasibleineachcountry.Consequently,theambitionofthescenariosformiti
