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1、CGDCENTERFOPG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENTTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurAbstractIn2011,theWorldBanksneweducationstrategystressedtheneedtoshiftfocusfromschooling(accessorenrollment)tolearning(testscores),andspecicallytowardsfoundationalskillsacquiredinprimar
2、yschool.Butthisshiftisnotalwayseasytoseeintheactuallendingdata.Codingnewdetailson25yearsofWorldBankeducationloansandgrants,wefindadeclineintheshareoffinancingforprimaryschooloverthewholeperiod,andnoapparentincreaseintheshareofprojectstargeting“qualityorlearningasopposedto“accesssince2011.Incontrast,
3、therehasbeengradualbutsteadygrowthinprojectstargetingearlychildhoodeducation.Thesepattternsappeartoreflectbothsupplyanddemandsidefactors.Onthedemandside,asprimaryenrollmentincreases,countriesshifttheirborrowingtowardearlychildhoodeducation.Onthesupplyside,theWorldBankissignificantlybetteratdeliverin
4、gearly-childhoodeducationprogramscomparedtoprojectsfocusedonraisingtestscores,asjudgedbyindependentevaluationscores.EvidenceonthelongtermlearninggainsfrompreschoolsuggestthismaybeamorefeasiblestrategyfortheWorldBanktoachieveitsgoals.WORKINGPAPER685MARCH2024TheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation
5、:1998-2022BiniamBedassoandJustinSandefurCenterforGlobalDevelopmentBiniamBedassoandJustinSandefur.2024.uTheEvolutionofWorldBank1.endingforEducation：1998-20227CGDWorkingPaper68E.Washington,DC:CenterfbrGlobalDevelopment.https:/www.cgdev.org/publication/evolution-world-bank-lending-educatton-1998-2022We
6、gratefullyacknowledgeexcellentresearchassistancefromOluwakemiOyewande.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentisgratefulforcontributionsfromtheBill&MelindaGatesFoundationinsupportofthisvvork.CENTERFORG1.OBA1.DEVE1.OPMENT20551.Street,NWFifthFloorWashington,DC200361AbbeyGardensGreatCollegeStreet1.ondonSWlP3SEwww
7、.cgdev.orgCenterforGlobalDevelopment.2024.TheCenterforGlobalDevelopmentworkstoreduceglobalpovertyandimprovelivesthroughinnovativeeconomicresearchthatdrivesbetterpolicyandpracticebytheworldzstopdecisionmakers.UseanddisseminationofthisWorkingPaperisencouraged;however,reproducedcopiesmaynotbeusedforcom
8、mercialpurposes.FurtherusageispermittedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommerdaI4.0International1.icense.TheviewsexpressedinCGDWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtotheboardofdirectors,fundersoftheCenterforGlobalDevelopment,ortheauthors*respectiveorganizations.Co
9、ntents1. Introduction12. Aquartercenturyofexpansionandoscillatingpriorities43. Reachinghigheroryounge11whatdocountriesborrowforastheyapproachuniversalprimaryenrollment?94. Betteratexpandingaccessforyoungerchildrenthanimprovinglearningforolderones125. Acloserlookatspecificinvestmentsinearlychildhoode
10、ducationandlearningoutcomesprojects176. Whatisinaprojectmaydependonwhohaspreparedit197. Conclusion21References23Appendix24Appendix 1: Methodologicalnote24Appendix 2: Cross-laggedpanelanalysis28Appendix 3: Fullregressionresults(section4)29Figures1. WorldBankseducationfinancingexpandedsignificantlyove
11、rthepasttwoandahalfdecades42. Theshareoffinancingforprimaryeducationhasdeclinedwhilethesharesofothersub-sectorshavefluctuated53. ExpandingaccesshasbeenthedominantobjectiveofWorldBankseducationfinancingbetween1998and202264. Theshareofprojectstargetingqualityorlearningasopposedtoaccess”showsnocleartre
12、ndoverthemediumterm75. Explicitfocusonlearningoutcomesoftenimpliesmoreprojectactivitiesinvolvingassessments,teachersandcurriculum86. Interventionstargetedatunderrepresentedgroupsandwomenincreaseddramaticallywhileactivitiesenhancingwellbeinginschoolstagnated97. Projectstargetingoutcomesgenerallyrecei
13、velowerperformancescoresthanprojectstargetingoutputs138. Projectswithanexplicitfocusonlearningoutcomesaremostlikelytoberatedasunsuccessful149. ECEprojectsaretheonlycategorywithasignificantlyhigherprobabilityofsuccessthanprimaryeducationprojects1610. Teachersandinclusiondominatethelistofmostcommonact
14、ivitiesfinancedthroughECEprojects1811. Assessmentsandcurriculumreformareprominentamongactivitiesfinancedthroughprojectstargetinglearningoutcomes19Tables1. ExpandingaccesstoprimaryschoolingisassociatedwithadeclineinborrowingforprimaryeducationandanincreaseinborrowingforECEandsecondaryeducation102. Id
15、entityoftheWorldBankTask-Team1.eadercanexplainthecompositionofeducationprojectsaswellorbetterthanthecountrytheprojectsarelocatedin20A1.Choiceofprojectsubsectorasafunctionpreviouseducationprojectcyclesinthesamecountry28A2.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonorderedprobitregres
16、sionsusing4-scaleoutcomerating)29A3.Projectperformancebyprojectobjectives(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)30A4.Projectperformancebysubsector(marginaleffectsbasedonbinaryprobitregressionsusingbinaryoutcomerating)311. IntroductionOverthepasttwodecades,asschoolenrollmentsandeducationexpendit
