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1、INTERNATIONA1.MONETARYFUNDTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertainty1.ukasBoerandMalteRiethWP/24/13IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(三)anddonotne
2、cessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.WoRK-NGPAPER2024JANWP/24/132024InternationalMonetaryFundIMFWorkingPaperResearchDepartmentTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertaintyPreparedby1.ukasBoerandMalteRieth*AuthorizedfordistributionbyJaewoo1.eeJan
3、uary2024IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(三)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheathor(三)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:Weestimatethemacroeconomiceffectsofimpor
4、ttariffsandtradepolicyuncertaintyintheUnitedStates,combiningtheory-consistentandnarrativesignrestrictionsinBayesianSVARs.Wefindmostlyadverseconsequencesofprotectionism,inaggregateandacrosssectorsandregions.Tariffshocksaremoreimportantthantradepolicyuncertaintyshocks.Tariffshocksdepresstrade,investme
5、nt,andoutputpersistently.Thegeneralequilibriumimportelasticityis-0.8.Historically,NAFTA/WTOraisedoutputby1-3%fortwentyyears.Undoingthe2018/19measureswouldraiseoutputby4%overthreeyears.Thefindingsimplyhighergainsoftradethanpartialequilibriumorstatictrademodels.RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Boer,1.ukas,andMalte
6、Rieth,2024.TheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertainty,IMFWorkingPaper24/13.JE1.ClassificationNumbers:C32,E30,F13,F14Keywords:Tradepolicy;internationaltrade;structuralvectorautoregressions;narrativeidentification;generalequilibrium;UnitedStates.AuthorsE-MailAddress:Iboerimf.
7、org,mriethdiw.deMalteRiethisaffiliatedwithMartin-1.uther-UniversitatHalle-WittenbergandtheGermanInstituteforEconomicResearch(DIWBerlin).TheauthorsaregratefultoThiloAlbers,MichaelBurda,DarioCaldara,AdamJakubik,Jaewoo1.ee,1.ukasMenkhoff,RomanMerga,FabianSeyrich1MartinStuermer11.eopoldZessner-Spitzenbe
8、rg1andseminarparticipantsattheDIWBerlinforhelpfulmments.WORKINGPAPERSTheMacroeconomicConsequencesofImportTariffsandTradePolicyUncertaintyPreparedby1.ukasBoerandMalteRieth1 IntroductionTheuncertaintyaboutUStradepolicyspikedaroundandfollowingthe2016presidentialelection.Subsequently,theUSraisedimportta
9、riffssubstantially.Forexample,theaveragerateonChinesegoodshasincreasedfrom3%to21%between2018and2020.Thereturnofprotectionismrenewedtheinterestamongpolicymakersandresearchersworldwideintwoclassicquestionsininternationaleconomics.Whataretheeffectsofimporttariffsinlargeopeneconomies?Whatistheeffectofun
10、certaintyabouttradepolicyinsuchcountries?Twolong-standingstrandsofresearchaddressthesequestionsbyusingmicroeconomicdata,analyzingthetwoquestionsinisolation,andfocusingonselectedtradeepisodes.AmacroeconomicaccountoftheaverageeffectsofbothdimensionsofUStradepolicyovermanytradeeventsislargelymissing.Th
11、ispaperaimsatfillingthegap.WeproddeevidenceontheeffectsofimporttariffsandtradepolicyuncertaintyontheUSeconomyingeneralequilibriumsincethe1960s.Combiningtwotraditionsintheempiricalmacroeconomicliterature,ouridentificationapproachusesboththeoryandnarrativeinformationtodisentangleandestimatetheeffectso
12、ftradepolicylevelanduncertaintyshocks.Wecontributetotheliteratureoninternationaltradealongthreemaindimensions.First,theempiricaltradeliteratureismainlybasedonmicroeconomicdata.Forexample,Fajgelbaumetal.(2019)estimatetheimpactoftradeimpedimentsinpartialequilibrium.Then,theyembedtheseestimatesinastruc
13、turalgeneralequilibriummodel.Thisapproachdeliverssharpidentificationanddetailedinsightsintotheeconomicmechanisms.Buttheaggregateeffectsarebasedonpotentiallystrongbehadoralandparametricassumptionsandreferonlytothelongrunastheyarebasedoncomparativestatics.Wecomplementtheseinsightsbystartingfromtheoppo
14、siteside.WeestimatetheshortrungeneralequilibriumeffectsusingaflexibleempiricalframeworkinformofaBayesianstructuralvectorautoregression(SVAR)withminimalassumptions.Then,weusetheidentifiedshockstodeterminethedisaggregatedimpactsacrossUSsectorsandstates.Thesecondcontributionistoestimatebothdimensionsof
15、UStradepolicy,shiftsintheleveloftariffsandintheuncertaintyaroundthese,inoneencompassingmodel.Bycontrast,mostoftheempiricaltradeliteratureanalyzesthemseparately,treatingeitheroneasorthogonaltotheother.1Thismightbeproblematicbecausetariffchangesandtradepolicyuncertaintyoftengo,Autoretal.(2016)andFajge
16、lbaumandKhandelwal(2022)reviewtheliteratureontheeffectsoftariffchangeshandinhand,astherecentUStradedisputesillustrate.Inaddition,identifyingbothlevelanduncertaintyshiftswithinasinglemodelhastheadvantagethattheimplicationsandimportanceofbothdimensionoftradepolicycanbecomparedconsistently.Thethirdcontributionistocomplementtheexistingestimatesbasedonsingletradeevents,orshortersamples,withevidencefrom6oyearsofquarte
