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1、ABOUTTHISREPORTFeb20242024BRANDMARKETING&MEDIAP1.ANNINGOUT1.OOKChlna,seconomyisstuckinaholdingpattern,confusedaboutapost-Covidrestartthatdidthappenin2023.And.whileChinahashadadistinctbastowardoptimismandgrowthheconomyi$stuck11thmiddle。，adelIaIionaryrecessionandconsumersaqturning11GgdtivR.Marketingin
2、Ch11aiswitnessinganinflectionpointm：o2024Giventhiseconomicbackdfp.marketerswillneedtoadjusttonewframeworksforgrowthinChina,andanenvironmentwhereconsumersaremorecautious,moreconsideredandmuchmoreselective.Theheadyulsepurchasesaregone-tobereplacedwithmorerational,cautiousandconsideredbuyingdecisions.D
3、sptthegrowingairofeoat1vly.thisenvironmentpresentsrealopportunitytorbandstoGoVeaheadAsweakerplayersareexposed,c11ppeorretreat.morewellmanagedcompaniesshouldteabletoImdbreathingspace.OnaCategoryOy-categorybasis.ChinahasOeenthemostcrowdedandcomplicatedmarketintheVorld.oftenhaving10-50xthenumberotcompe
4、titorspercategory(whencomparedwthmorematuremarkets!.ThescaleoicompetitioncouldeaseastheresultoaprolongedmarketcontractionThetricktocomingoutAheadhavingaCIGarperspectiveontMtiming,dplhofthedownturnaswellasinternalPlanSforhowioposlo11andpriceaccordingly.Positioningandstrategyaroundadencetargetingwillg
5、keyasChinasnewco11su11erenvironmentunfolds.Withinthisenvironment,therewillbefewerwinnerspercategory.ThegoalofmarketingteamswillbetoensurethatIheirbrandsareamongthewinnersasthingsshakeoul.Dialinginbrandpositioningandvaluepropositionwithacoreconsumergroupisanimportantfirststep.InSection5othisreportwel
6、ookintothepositioningimplicationsforbrandsduringrecession.And.whileIherewillboatemptationtoturnallmarketingeffortstowardboltom-qf-funnolperformance,buildingemotionalconnectionsUrustzafrinity)shouldplayanimpofiantroleintisnewparadigm.Wieconsumerswillspendlessinto2024.theywillstillpurcasethebrandsthey
7、know,loveandtrustmost.Many(weaker)brandswillbewelladvisedtowithdrawfromChinagivencurrentconditions.Volmanaged,wellpositionedbrandswillbeadvisedtostayfocused,budlastingconnectionswithcorecustomers.anoatedcoho11ofweakercompetitorsAstheWorldssecondlargesteconomy,thescaleandpo!entialolCinacannoteasilybe
8、replaced(with,foreampte3newlyemergingmarket).So.PUHiC9outshouldbecarefullyconsidered.ItsalsopossiblethatrestofworldfollowsCtoselyinChinastracks,bydippingintorecession.Inthiscontext,pullingoutofChinanowinfavorofanothermarkel-mightbackfire.Forinstance.Germany.JapanandtheUKarealready,officiallyinrecess
9、ion.ChrisBakerFounder.TotemTHETOTA1.NUMBEROFINTERNETUSERSINCHINACONTINUESTOGROWATAROUND5%EACHYEAR,ANDCURRENT1.YSITSATOVER1.079SI1.1.ION.OFTHOSE,1.076BI1.1.IONAREMOBI1.EUSERS(MORET11AN9OFCHINAS-INTERNETPOPU1.ATIONARSMOBI1.E).：-Bycomparison,thereare311.3milliopnetizensintheUSfasOfJanuary2023)andan91.%
10、AnobilePenekationrate三xchv)*bia*9(vo0.ap.J*,t2ItgnatSWb.pl.,1:ocv_loginusernMB1:oraasowwopjdminla_loginCHINASINTERNETPOPU1.ATIONSource:CWC2023IxpostfixadalnIntitle:*postfIxadnlnaCHINASDIGITA1.1.ANDSCAPEISAROUIDSOCA1.COTaIentitiesJSTRUCTUREDSSHAfISUPERWEENJHOPP1N1ASE1.ECTFEWDOHAVECAPTUREDCONSUMERFOCU
11、S?THATB1.URTHE1.INNETWORKINGANDOKltIIW112512021Source:依QTHEAIMOFSOCIA1.COMMERCEISCHANNE1.AUDIENCEEXCITEMENTANDINTENTTOWARDSCHECKOUT,USINGAOFINF1.UENCERMARKETING,REAIKEVIDEO.CONTENTANDREVIEWSHARING.sdotheirWthetypicalChinasnotoriouslyutioscresearchbeforemakingPUrChaSUSbuyerwhomightconsult3-4sorcQfptc
12、as.Chineseconsumerstopicallyexplore*15-Afferentsources.SuperApps,offerstrongnetworksofsocialendorsementswithintheirexclusiveecosystems.CHINACONSUMERCONFIDENCE(2010-2023)CONSUMERSENTIMENTCONSUMERCONFIDENCEINCHINAISC1.OSE1.YRE1.ATEDTOTHEPROPERTYMARKET.THEWEA1.THEFFECTFROMPROPERTYGAINSHASFUE1.EDROBUSTC
13、ONSUMPTIONINTHEPASTDECADE(三).CONSUMERANDPROPERTYCONFIDENCEHAVEBEENMOVINGDOWN-INCONCERT-SINCEBEFORECOVID.MOVINGFORWARD,JOBINSECURITYMAYBEAFURTHERDRAGONCONSUMERCONFIDENCE.ChineseholdmostofIheirpersonalwealthinproperty,withmorethan75%investmentsinproperty,comparedto30%intheUS.Inadditiontothoweakproperl
14、ymarket,thesmallshareofinvestmentsthatdogotofinancialassetsaregettingtrampled,asChinasstockmarketshavegottenslammedin2023-24.HOUSEHO1.DINVESTMENTMIX(CHINAVSUSA)25%50%75%100%Source:Sxve&ResearchCenterforChtnaHouschMfv311ceReachingdownintolowertiercitieshasbeenago-tomoveforbrandslookingtofindnewgrowth
15、inChinaoverthepastdecade.1.owertiercities,coupledwiththeexpansionofthemiddleclasshaveofferednearendlessopportunitiesforgrowth.Brandslookingtotapintonewsourcesofgrowthinto2024andbeyond,willneedtoadjusttacticsandfocusonamixof;(1)incomestrata(middlevsaffluentclasses),(2)citytiers(T1vslowertier)and(3)generationaltiers(boomersvsGenZ).ShouldChinaseconomiccontractionintensify,thegrowthofthemiddleclasswillstall(andshiftintoreverse).Atthesametime,aneconomicdownturnwillputpressureongrowthoflowertiermarkets.Inthis
