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1、Unit7TheArtofSmartGuessingBryanW.Mattimore1. Severalyearsago,interviewingcandidatesforajob,Igrewtiredofaskingwhatexperiencedoyouhave?SoIdecidedonaone-questionquiztofindouthowresourcefulathinkerthenewhiremightbe.Hereitis:2. YouareonayachtsailingthePacificOcean.Yournavigatorannouncesyouareoverthedeepe
2、stpoint,theMarianaTrench.Justthen,aclumsyguestaccidentallydropsa12-poudcannonballovertheside.HowlongwillittakeforthecannonballtoreachthebottomoftheOcean?3. Beforereadingon,pleasetrytosolvethisyourself-payingspecialattentiontohowyoumightsolveit.4. Didyoumakeacompletelywildguessbecause,therewasntenoug
3、hinformation?Didyougettbaggeddowninthedetailstryingtocomeupwiththe*exactlyright1*answer?Ordidyouzeroinonthetwomostimportantproblems-howdeepistheMarianaTrenchandhowfastmightacannonballfallthroughthewater-thenhazardaguesstimate?5. Mostofmycandidatessimplymadeawildguess,thinkingthattheycouldn,tbe100-pe
4、rcetright.Rarelywassomeonewillingtoriskanapproximation.6. Whatdoesthishavetodowithbusinessorcreativity?Agreatdeal.Intherealworld,wefrequentlyneedtomakedecisionswhenthefullinformationdoesnotexist.Fromwhatfoodsweeattohowtoralourkids,creativepeoplemustthinkforthemseh/es.Theremaynotbethetimeorthemoneyto
5、makesureofallyourdecisions.Yourbestguesswilloftenbethebestyoucando.7. Suppose,forexample,youvebeenaskedtowriteamarketingplanforanewtelephonedevicethatwillsendyourname,company,addressandtelephonenumbertoavisualdisplayorprinteronanotherpersonsphone.Inadditiontoconventionaloutletslikemassmerchandisersa
6、ndelectronicsstores,youdliketoknowthenumberofphonestores*intheUnitedStates.Unfortunatelyzthisfigureisnotavailable,eitherfromthemarket-researchhousesorfromtheU.S.government.Whatdoyoudo?8. Onesolutionwouldbetogotoyourlocallibrary,pulloutafewphonedirectoriesfromaroundthecountry,turntotheYellowPagesands
7、tartcounting.Youcouldthenguesstimatehowmanystoresper100.0peopleineachofthecitiesyoucounted.This,bytheway,isexactlywhatamarketingconsultantIknowdidforalargetelecommunicationsclient.9. ThequestionaboutphonestoreswasanexampleofwhatscientistscallaFermproblem,namedafterNobelPrizewinningscientistEnricoFer
8、mizwhousedproblemssuchasthistoteachhisstudentshowtothinkforthemselves.AFermiproblemdoesnotcontainalltheinformationyouneedtosolveitprecisely.10. FermiissaidtohaveonceaskedhsuniversitystudentshowmanypianotunerstherewereinChicago.Toanswerthequestion,herecommendedbreakingitdownintosmaller,moremanageable
9、questions,andthenhavingthecouragetomakesomeguessesandassumptions.HowmanypeopleliveinChicago?Threemillionwouldbeareasonableestimate.Howmanypeopleperfamily?Assumeanaverageoffour.Howmanyfamiliesownpianos?Sayoneoutofthree.Thentherewereabout250,000pianosinChicago.Howoftenwouldeachbetuned?Maybeonceeveryfi
10、veyears.Thatmakes50,000tuningsayearHowmanypianoscanonetunertuneinaday?Four?Andhowmanyinayear?Assuming250workingdaysfonetunercanhandle1,000pianosyear.11. Sothere,sworkforapproximately50pianotunersinChicagowhich,asitturnsout.isreasonablyclosetotheactualnumberintheYellowPages.12. Whywasguessworksoaccur
11、ate?Thelawofaveragesispartlyresponsible.Atanypoint,yourassumptionsmaybetoohighortoolow.Butbecauseofthelawofaverages,yourmistakeswillfrequentlybalanceout.13. Heresanotherpuzzle.Youprobablyalreadyknowthatblackabsorbsthemostheat,whilewhitereflectsthemost.Butwhatabouttheothercolorsinbetween?Howuldyoufin
12、dtheanswer?Hint：t,swintertime,butnottoocold.14. BenFrankli,ssolutionwaselegant.Hesimplylaidbroadclothsamplesofvariouscolorsonthesnowonasunnymorning.Inafewhours/*hereported,*theblack,beingwarmedmostbythesun,wassunksolowastobebelowthestrokeofthesunsrays；thedarkblue,almostaslow；thelighterbluenotquiteso
13、muchasthedark;theotherCOIOrS,lessastheywerelighter,andthequitewhiteremainedonthesurfaceofthesnow,nothavingentereditatall.15. Oneofmyfavoritewguesstimatorswis,westConnecticutinventorStanMasonzwhodevelopedmicrowavecookwarespeciallydesignedtopositionfoodinthebestspotforcooking.16. Todothis,Masonneededt
14、oknowwherethemicrowaveshotspots”were-theplacewheretherayshitthefoodwiththehighestintensity.Tofindoutheputshelvesofunpoppedpopcornkernelsinthemicrowaveandwatchedtoseewhichkernelspoppedfirst.Hediscoveredapatternintheovenshottestrays:theywerentinthecomersoratthecenter,butintheshapeofamushroomcloud.17.
15、Thenhedesignedcookingdishestofitthepattern.Hehadcomeupwitharesourcefulwaytoapproximatetheanswerratherthanusingscientificallysophisticatedtestingequipment.18. Fermiwouldhaveapproved.19. Bytheway,theMarianaTrenchisaboutsixnauticalmilesdeep,andacannonballdropsatarateoftenfeetpersend.Soittookthecannonba
16、llaboutanhourtoreachthebottomofthetrench.20. Couldthisbeguessed?IfyouknowthatEarthshighestpointMountQomolangma,is29,000feet,youmightreasonablyconcludethatitslowestpointwouldbedosetothesamedistance.ThenyoumightimaginethataheavyobjectwouldtakeonesecondtofallthroughthewaterofaIOfootdeepswimmingpool.Theseestimateswouldbringyoucloseenoughtothecorrectanswer.ChineseTranslationofParagraphs1 .几年前,我给应聃者面试.问他们你有什么阅历？”这个问时.后来渐渐何烦了
