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1、某咨询银行业发展能否超越兼并收购USbankswillneedtolookbeyondmergersforgrowth.Betterearningswillhavetobewonfromimprovedvaluepropositionsandproductivity.KEVINP.COYNEzLENNYT.MENDONCA,ANDGREGORYWILSONTheMcKinseyQuarterly,2004Number1Theprimaryrationalebehindthewaveofmergersinthe1990soachievesubstantialeconomiesofscalebye
2、xploitingtechnologyandderegulation税snaturallyweakening.Formostlargebanks,furtherexpansionwon挟necessarilyyielddramaticscale-basedsavingsinsystemsandproduct-developmentcosts.Soalthoughmergerswillcontinuetotakeplace,opportunitiestocreatesubstantialvaluehavediminishedandrelativelyfewerdealswillpackthepu
3、nchofthe1990s.Executivesoflargebanksmustlookfornewwaystoincreaseearnings.Untilrecently,thesolutionwasfallinginterestrates,whichfueledunprecedentedprofitsfrommortgagesandcreditcards.1Butwithratesbeginningtorise,bankswillhavetolookelsewhere.Morecompellingvaluepropositionsarerequiredifbanksaretocompete
4、withthenonbanksandspecialiststhathaveflourishedinmanymarkets.Likethebestretailers,banksmustdifferentiatethemselvesbyunderstandingtheneedsoftheircustomersandgivingthosecustomersadistinctiveexperience.Banksshouldalsoboosttheirperformancetheold-fashionedway,byimprovingproductivity窠omethingthatwillbecom
5、evitalastheirpaymentsbusinesses,representingasubstantialshareofindustryprofitsandoperatingexpenses,shrinkwiththefallinguseofchecks.Tosucceedinthesetasks,banksmustinnovateintheirformats,theircustomertargeting,theirapproachtolendingandassetmanagement,theiroperations,andtheiruseofelectronicpayments.Thi
6、sagendaischallenging,anditcallsforskillsbeyondthose窠uchasidentifyingandvaluingacquisitiontargetsanddrivingintegrationShatservedexecutivessowellintherecentpast.Significantchangeslieaheadformanagersworkingtowardanewsetofperformancepriorities.THEOLDGAMEWINDSDOWNAlthoughthebankingindustry担structureandre
7、gulatoryframeworkwillpermitmoremergersinthefuture,thereducedpotentialforsynergiesmeansthatCEOswhomakedealstheirprimarystrategicfocuscouldbedisappointedbytheresults.Someobviouspairingswillrealizeworthwhilecostsavings,especiallyamongsecond-andthird-tierbanks,butformostlargeinstitutionstheopportunities
8、forconsolidationarenotwhattheywereafewyearsago.Duringthe1990s,theeconomicrationaleformergerswasindisputable.Enormousefficiencygapsbetweentheacquirerandtheacquiredoftencreatedcostandrevenuesynergiesrangingfrom30to100percentofaseller担netincome.2Newtechnologymademanyoftheseefficiencygainspossiblebyfaci
9、litatingtheconsolidationofbranches.Inaddition,theRiegle膊ealActof1994,whichallowedbankholdingcompaniestoacquirebanksinanystate,openedthedoortopairings窠uchasthosebetweenBankofAmericaandNationsBank,andNorwestandWellsFargohatpreviouslywouldhavebeendifficultorimpossible.Sosuccessfulwasthiswaveofmergersth
10、attheindustryprogressedtowardanaturalendgameinwhichahandfulofnationwidebanksbegantoemerge.Althoughcurbedbyaregulationlimitinganindividualbank担shareofUSdepositsto10percentofthetotal(which,withantitrustsafeguards,ensuredthatthousandsofcommunitybankscontinuedtothrive),thetopteninstitutionsincreasedthei
11、rshareofUSdepositsfrom27percentin1994to44percentin2002(Exhibit1).ConsolidationcontinuesShareoftotalassetsheldbyUSCommerciaIZsavingsbanksbysize,%Soiree：FDIC;SheshunoWInformettonServices;SNLFinancialButthelargerbankshavepickedmostoftheopportunitiesfromconsolidation.Today担possiblecombinationsamongthela
12、rgerinstitutionspresentfewergeographicoverlaps.Whilescaleeconomiesarealwayshelpful,mostleadingbanksarealreadybigenoughtosupportthesystems,branding,andproduct-developmentcostsofthenextfewyears.Tobesure,bankmergersarenotathingofthepast.Underthe10percentdepositceiling,thereisstillroomforthetop20or25pla
13、yerstomakesubstantialacquisitionsandfortwoorthreemovesthatwouldcreatethehandfuloftrulynationalbanksanticipatedwiththeRiegle脖ealActpassage.Moreover,manymiddle-tierregionalbankshavesurvivedandprosperedandwillprobablyconsolidatefurther.Therationalesupportingbig-bankmergersduringthe1990sthusstillapplies
14、,particularlygiventhegeographicconcentrationofmanyregionalbanks:atleasteightmiddle-tierbanksdobusinessinAlabama,Georgia,andTennessee,forexample.Yettheeconomicsmeanthatmanybigdealswillbemorelikelytoexploitreducedvaluations,opportunitiesfortransferringskills,orthepossibilityofexpandingintonewbusinesse
15、sorgeographiesthanthecostsynergiesthatoftenjustifiedsignificantpremiumsduringthe1990s.Bothmanagerialcapabilitiesandeconomiesofscopewillbedriversofwell-receiveddeals.SoM&A,whilestillalogicalpartofsomebanks?strategiesintheyearsahead,willbealessprominentsourceofvaluethanitwasintherecentpast.INPURSUITOF
16、GROWTHTheconsolidationofthe1990senabledmanyfinancialinstitutionstoexpandtheirbookvaluewithoutsignificantorganicgrowth.Thisdevelopmenthelpedlargebanks,whichfor25yearshadlostgroundinmarketaftermarkettononbanksandspecialists,suchasCharlesSchwabandMerrillLynch,thatofferedamoreattractivevaluepropositionandbetterservice.Comparedwiththeseinnovators,bankswereslowtochange,partlybecauseinthedayswhencompetitionwasregionaltherewardsweresmalleranditoftenpaidtowa
