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1、0DDECARBONlZATlOh_DAYXWAVCPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesBrazil,India,IndonesiaandSouthAfricaAninternationalreportcoordinatedbytheDeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)InitiativeNOVEMBER2021IDDRICopyright2021IDDRITheInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentandInternationalRelations(IDD
2、RI)encouragesthereproductionandpubliccommunicationofitscopyrightmaterials,withpropercredit(bibliographicalreferenceand/orcorrespondingURL),forpersonal,corporateorpublicpolicyresearch,oreducationalpurposes.However,IDDRscopyrightedmaterialsarenotformmercialuseordissemination(printorelectronic).Unlesse
3、xpresslystatedotherwise,thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethoseofthevariousauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofIDDRsboard.CitationDDP(2021).Policylessonsondeepdecarbonizationinlargeemergingeconomies.DeepDecarbonizationPathways(DDP)Initiative-IDDRI.Paris.Therepo
4、rtisavailableonline:https:ddpinitiative.org/CategOrV/publication/ContactHenriWaisman,heni.waismaniddri.oraFinancialsupportfromThereportPOLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesisfinanciallysupportedbytheInternationalClimateInitiative(IKI)oftheGermanFederalMinistryfortheEnvironment,N
5、atureConservationandNuclearSafety(BMU)aspartoftheClimateActionAfterParisproject(nr.18_l_326).Production:IDDRI.Editing:MartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,LolaVallejo,HenriWaisman.Layout:IvanPharabod.POLICYLESSONSONDEEPDECARBONIZATIONinlargeemergingeconomiesIntroduction3Brazil:5Introduction5Part 1:Sce
6、narioresults7Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons18Annex23India:25Introduction25Part 1:Scenarioresults27Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons32Indonesia:39Part 1:Scenarioresults40Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons51SouthAfrica:55Introduction55Part 1:Scenarioresults56Part 2:KeyPolicyLessons62Thisreporthasbeenauthoredbyaconsortiumofindepe
7、ndentexpertsactingintheirpersonalcapacitiesandwhohavenotbeennominatedbytheirrespectivegovernments.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotreflecttheviewsofanygovernmentororganization.IntroductionMartaTorresGunfaus1AnnaPerezCatala,HiltonTrollip1HenriWaisman.Theworldhasagreedtopreventtheirreversibledamagest
8、ohumanandnaturalecosystemscausedbyanthropogenicglobalwarmingbylimitingtheriseofglobaltemperaturetowellbelow2andtopursueeffortstolimititto1.5.Toimplementthis,theParisAgreementgroundsthisgoalintermsofglobalemissiontrajectoriesandtheneedtoembedthemintheinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoer
9、adicatepoverty.Subsequentlyscience(IPCCSR1.5)furtherspecifiesthatglobalneutralityconcerningcarbondioxidespecificallyshouldhappenbetween2050(for1,5)and2075(for2).Italsopointsoutthenecessityofmindingnon-CO2forcerstomaintaintheglobalobjective.Toreachthisscaleofemissionreductions,thescientificassessment
10、concludesthatrapidandfar-reachingtransformations,farbeyondwhathasbeenobservedinthepast,arerequiredinallcomponentsoftheeconomicsystem,i.e.inenergy,urbanandinfrastructure,industryandlandandecosystems.Suchdrastictransitionsinturnrequireprofoundchangesintechnologiesbutalsoinsocial,economic,institutional
11、andpolicycondi-tions.Scienceshowsthatthechangesrequiredbyclimateobjectivescanbecompatiblewithbroadersustainabledevelopmentobjectivesifactionisimple-mentedwithoutdelay,isguidedbystrategicvisionsoftransformationsinformingthedesignofwell-designedpolicypackagesandthecooperationamongactorsandisenabledbye
12、ffectiveinternationalcooperation.Withtheseframeworknditionsathand,countriesaresettoexplorenationalpathwaystoexplainhowtherapidandfar-reachingtransitionsrequiredgloballycanhappenineachcountryntext.Nationaldeepdecarbonisationoflargeemergingeconomieshasbeenlargelyexploredfromatechno-economicperspective
13、,resultinginviablesetsoflong-termpathwaysunderanumberofconditions.Existinganalysisshowsthatthenationaltransitioncanmostlybeeninitiatedusingexistingtechnologiesandmarketinstrumentsatlowandoftennetnegativefinancialstandthat,usually,thesetransformationscanhaveassociatedlargeoverallneteconomicbenefitswh
14、enexternaleconomicandenvironmentalcostsandbenefitsarefactoredin.However,similartomostpartsoftheworld,mostmajornecessarydecarbonisationtransformationsareeithernothappeningorhappeningataslowerpacethannecessary.Thisgapbetweenexistingevidenceandconcreteactionhighlightsthatthecarbonneutraltransitionisnot
15、onlyamatteroftechno-economicfeasibilitybutessentiallyaquestionofpoliticaleconomy.Actualimplemen-tationrequiresclarityaboutthechoicestobemadeinthetransition,abouttheconcretepoliciesandactionsthatcanbeenvisaged,aboutthosewhocanbewinnersandthosewhomayloseandthemeasuresadoptedtomanagethesocio-economicco
16、stsofthetransition.Scientificassessmentsshouldthereforebeseenlessasaninstrumenttoillustratetransitionpathwaysinanormativemannerthanasawaytodeterminetheinclusivewhole-of-societyconversa-tionthatwouldberequiredtomakethetransitioneffectiveandacceptable.TheDDPmmunitybehindthisreporthascommittedtothisvisionoftheroleofscenarioanalysisinthepublicdebate.Thebodyofknowledgeemergingfromthiscommunityaimsatensuringthatthefeaturesofthetechno-enomicdeepdecarbonisationtransformationsarecontextualizedinthedivers
