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1、NOVEMBER2021U.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022NavyMarkF.CancianThispaperispartofU.S.MilitaryForcesinFY2022.ThereisbipartisansupporttoexpandtheNavy,butlimitedbudgetsandearlyretirements-i4divcstingtoinvcsf,一makeachievingthatgoaldifficult.TheBidcnadministrationsemergingfleetplanincorporatessmallershipsandlarge
2、numbersofunmannedsystems,asproposedbymanystrategists,buthighcosts,productionlimitations,andcongressionaloppositionmaypreventfullimplementation.KEYTAKEAWAYSInFY2022,fleetsizestaysaboutthesame,at296ships.Previouslyorderedshipsarriveinlargenumbers,buttheNavyretires15ships,10early.Navyactive-dutypersonn
3、eldecreaseby1,600to346,200.,ShipnumbersmattertotheNavybecauseofhighday-to-daydemandsforitsforcesforcrisisresponse,alliedandpartnerengagement,conventionaldeterrence,andongoingregionalconflicts.Thefuturefleetarchitecture-itssizeandcomposition-remainsaworkinprogress.TheTrumpadministrations355-shipgoalw
4、asdeemedinfeasiblebecauseofitshighcostandoutmodedoperationalconcepts.Attheendofitsterm,theTrumpadministrationarticulatedanewvisionincorporatingunmannedsystemsanddistributedcapabilities.TheBidenadministrationpublishedasimilararchitecture,butsmallerandwithrangesforshipnumbers.Costisaproblemwithallofth
5、esenotionalarchitecturesbecausetheyrequirelargefundingincreaseswhichmaynotoccur.Nevertheless,someinsightsareemerging:Carriers:Recentforcestructureproposalshaveimpliedareductioninthenumberofcarriers.However,contractualcommitmentsandpoliticalconstraintsmayhavelockedtheNavyintothepresentcarrierforcefor
6、manyyearsregardlessofstrategicconsiderations.Smallcarriersseemtoberecedingintothebackgroundonceagain.CSIS,LargeSurfaceCombatants:Futurearchitecturesenvisiondeepcutstothisfleet,implyingproductioncutbacksandmanyearlyretirements.However,industrialbaseandstrategicconcernsaboutshrinkingfleetsizewillclash
7、withthenewgoals.CFNTFRFURSTRATFGlcINTERNATIONALSTUDIES SmallSurfaceCombatants:Allthefuturefleetarchitecturesshowanincrease,theonlyquestionbeinghowmuchofanincreaseandhowfast. AmphibiousShips:Newamphibiousconceptsandtheintroductionofasmallamphibiousshipimplyreductionsinthenumberoflargeamphibiousships.
8、However,aswiththelargesurfacecombatants,industrialbaseinterestswillclashwiththenewandlowergoals. AttackSubmarines:Allfuturearchitecturesenvisionanincreaseinthesizeoftheattacksubmarinefleet.However,slowproductioninthe1990sandproductioncapacitylimitstodaywilllimitfleetsizeuntilthe2040s. BallisticMissi
9、leSubmarines:TheColumbia-classballisticmissilesubmarineprogram,theNavy,shighest-priorityprogram,remainsonscheduleand(generally)attargetcostbutwithsomerisk.AnyprogramdelaywoulddisrupttheU.S.nucleardeterrent,whileanycostincreasewoulddisrupteveryothershipbuildingprogram. UnmannedSurfaceandUnderseaVesse
10、ls:ThesefigureprominentlyinNavyarchitectures,butthesystemsremainexperimentalandnoneofthelargerprogramshaveaproductionplan.TheFY2022budgetseemstoentailapauseindevelopment.Navalaviationisgenerallyingoodshape,withstableinventoriesandacceptableaveragefleetages.However,itremainsfocusedonmannedplatforms.E
11、ndStrengthinFY2022Table1:NavyEndStrength-Active,Reserve,andCiviliansActiveNavyEndStrengthNavyReserveEndStrengthCivilianFull-timeEquivalentsFY2021Enacted347,80058,800199,051FY2022Request346,20058,300200,192ChangefromFY2020-1,600-500+1,141Source:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY
12、2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),ActiveEndStrengthdatainFigure7.2,ReserveEndStrengthdatainFigure7.3,CiviliandatainFigure7.10(includesdirectandindirecthiresbutexcludesMarineCorpscivilians),httpsy/www.secnav.Navy.mil/fma/fmb/Documents/22pres./Highlights_Book.pdf.Navypersonnellevelsha
13、vebeenonarollercoaster,reachingapost-ColdWarhighof383,000inFY2002andalowof318,000inFY2012.Thenumberhascreptbackup,buttheNavyisstillfarbelowitspre-9/11size.However,thenumberofsailorstracksroughlytothenumberofshipsinthefleet(seeFigure1).Figure1:NavyActive-DutyPersonnel,1999-2022400380360340320300SSoSS
14、SSSM uocMActual-FY2022BudgetSource:OfficeoftheUnderSecretaryofDefense(Comptroller).NationalDefenseBudgetEstimatesforFY2022(Washington.DC:DepartmentofDefense,August2021),Table7-5:DepartmentofDefenseManpower,258-60,httpsmptroller.defense.govPortals45Documentsdefbudget/FY2022/FY22_Green_Book.pdf.TheNav
15、yprojectsthatactive-dutyendstrengthwilldeclineslightlyinFY2022to346,200.ThisreflectstheNavysnear-termplantoretireoldershipswithlargecrews.AfewNavypersonnelwilltransfertotheSpaceForceinFY2022,butmajordecisionsherelieinthefuture.TheFY2020andFY2021projectionshadshowncontinuedpersonnelgrowth.Figure2:Nav
16、yReservePersonnel,1989-2022160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,00019891990199319961999200220052008201120142017202020212022FY 2021 BudgetNavyReserveEndStrengthSource:DepartmentoftheNavy,HighlightsofTheDepartmentoftheNavyFY2022Budget(Washington,DC:DepartmentofDefense,2021),Figure7.3,https7vww.secnav
