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1、CBREVIEWPOINTWe explore whether index- linked Government bond oc BBB corporate bond yields are more useful than nominal Government bond yields for analysing prime real estate pricingCBRE RESEARCH DECEMBER 2023IntelligentInvestmentAreGovernmentorcorporatebondyieldsabetterbenchmarkforUKrealestateprici
2、ng?Prime real estate yields rose in the last 18 months, but SDreadS over nominal and red G vlds r,r什u.,.lKeytakeaways-Primerealestateyieldsroseinthelast18monthstoreflectthec11oedinterestrateenvironmentbutthescreedbetweenIXMneyieldsand10-yearGovenmen(bondyieldsremainslightcomparedwiththelastdecadeCur
3、rent ocin miaM IOOk unfavourable based on these ComDariSOg but history shows the DoeAion can change OUiCkN-Smalls(xedsovernominalGovernmentbondyieldswereobserveddurmgtheGlobalFinancialCrisisof27-0.buttheyWefealsoConlmonDteCebeforethisWrthtacetreturnsforrealestatemetIhrouahacombnadonofinitialInCOmean
4、dcashAoworowth-index-linkedGovernmentbondsareabetterbenchmarkforthefkreeratewhenanaysinorealestate,becausecashtowrwthi$tearltobothtvoeso(investmentTheSDfeddbetweencrimeyieldsandIOVeari11(texrlnjedCbeenconsistentlypositivethroughtime,dithouohitisnownarrowerthanmrecentveers-CorDaatebondyieldshavealsos
5、hownaclo$6rcocresporfencewithrealestateyieldssincetheseinvestments,likerealestate,offeterminterestratesstartfllmnreflectionofadclmnUKinflationrateandanendtotheraterts11cycleHave spreads been more consistent bet ween real estate yields and these oher measures, and do such comparisons suggest that a t
6、ighter spread over nominalGovernment bond yields could be sustained Soingforward?IntroductionTheUKhasseenasustainedriseinbothshort-termadlong-terminterestratesoverthelasttwoveariThisfollowedadecadeinwhichtheBdnkofEnglandbaseratewasbelow1%,borrowingcostsweretYDtcallvvervlow.andGovernmentbondyieldswer
7、ealsoVCrVlow.supportedM9(XoQrammeofquantitativeeasing.Overthatsamedecade,awidemarginexitedbetweenrealestateyieldsandGovernmentbondViekKHence,whatEiahtbetheImDlicationSforUKrealestateDfiCinafromrecentrisesinGovernmentandcorporatebondyw(Kandhowfardorealestateyieldshavetorisetoreflectthechangedfinancia
8、lenvironment?TighterspreadsbetweenUKrealestateVieMSandnominalGovernmentbondyieldshavebeenobservedintheoastbutthesemhthaveresultedfromdifferentinvestorexpectationsaboutcashflowgrowthordifferencesintheriskoremumreouiredforrealestateinvestmentWeexploresomeoftheadvantagesandChaItefKW5ofCOnWinQrealestate
9、yieldsagainstindex-linkedGovernnwntbondyields,andCorooratebondyieldsasMtefnMeStonominalGovernmentbonds.Havespreadsbeenmoreconsistentbetweenrealestateyieldsandtheseothermeasures,anddosuchcomwrisonsSUQgeStthalatighterspreadovernominalGovernmentbondyieldscouldbesustainedQOinaforward?NominalGiltyieldsTa
10、rgetreturnratesforprimerealestateives(wntsshouldreflecttherisk-freerateofreturn,plusapremiumforbearingtherisksassociatedwithm!estate,butinvestorsdonotneedtoreceivetheirtargetreturnratefromcurrentinconeifthefuturecashflowsfromralestateinvestmentsareexpectedtorise.Therefore,theyieldtheyreceiveinitiall
11、ycanbeowfthantheirtargetrate.Thismeansthatyieldswillbenftuencednotonvbvrkreeratesandriskpremiums,butalsobygrowthexpectations.ThemostcommonproxyforariskreerateinanalysisofUKComCnefCiaIrealestateisthereemoverGltsaoaistanaHPrODertVprimeyieldoverthelast35veers.TheMpropertyyieldisconstructedasacompositeo
12、fprimeyieldsrecordedbyCBREforthehighstreetretail,office,andindustrialsectorsoftheUKrealestatemarket.ThecomparisonshowsthatthespreadbetweenrealestateyieldsandIOyearnonnalGiKyieldshasvariedalotovertime.Theaveragespreadsince2013hasbeen25ibobutwasonly86bosinthedecadeDCiortothis,whitetherewereperiodsMthe
13、198OSand19905whenthe10-yeMGtttyieldwasabovetheprimerealestateyield.Moreover,nocallmovementsinnominalGityieldsleadtochangesinrealestateVieidWThiSt$becausesomefactorsthatcauseGItyieldstoriseOrfNLsuchchangingexpectationsforinflation,mightproduceadifferentreactioninrealestateVieid$Forexample.HhiQhefinflationwasexpectedtooenefatehighercashflowgrowth,thiswouldcounteractriseinthensk-frcorateHence,thelimitationsofthiscomparisonarethatitomitsconsiderationofhowviewsaboutriskorgrowtharechanging.ThisisespeciallyrelevantforunderstandingrecentChanQeSinthespreadbetweenrealestateYieldsandnominalGittyie
