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1、OXFORDECONOMICSTHEECONOMICIMPACTOFANONLINERETAILSALESTAXINTHEUKANINDEPENDENTREPORTFORAMAZONUKNOVEMBER2020OXFORDECONOMICSABOUTOXFORDECONOMICSOxfordEconomicswasfoundedin1981asacommercialventurewithOxfordUniversitysbusinesscollegetoprovideeconomicforecastingandmodellingtoUKcompaniesandfinancialinstitut
2、ionsexpandingabroad.Sincethen,wehavebecomeoneoftheworld,sforemostindependentglobaladvisoryfirms,providingreports,forecastsandanalyticaltoolsonmorethan200countries,250industrialsectors,and7,000citiesandregions.Ourbest-in-classglobaleconomicandindustrymodelsandanalyticaltoolsgiveusanunparalleledabilit
3、ytoforecastexternalmarkettrendsandassesstheireconomic,sialandbusinessimpact.HeadquarteredinOxford,England,withregionalcentresinNewYork,London,Frankfurt,andSingapore,OxfordEconomicshasofficesacrosstheglobeinBelfast,Boston,CapeTown,Chicago,Dubai,Dublin,HongKong,LosAngeles,Melbourne,MexicoCity1Milan,Pa
4、ris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,andToronto.Weemploy400full-timestaff,includingmorethan250professionaleconomists,industryexperts,andbusinesseditors-oneofthelargestteamsofmacroeconomistsandthoughtleadershipspecialists.Ourglobalteamishighlyskilledinafullrangeofresearchtechniquesandthoughtleader
5、shipcapabilitiesfromeconometricmodelling,scenarioframing,andeconomicimpactanalysistomarketsurveys,casestudies,expertpanels,andwebanalytics.OxfordEconomicsisakeyadvisertocorporate,financialandgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Ourworldwideclientbasenowcomprisesover1,500internationalorganisati
6、ons,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesandtradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.NOVEMBER2020AlldatashownintablesandchartsareOxfordEconomics,owndata,exceptwhereotherwisestatedandcitedinfootnotes,andarecopyrightOxfordEconomicsLt
7、d.ThisreportisconfidentialtoAmazonUKandmaynotbepublishedordistributedwithouttheirpriorwrittenpermission.Themodellingandresultspresentedherearebasedoninformationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicshasreliedinproducingitsreportandforecastsingoodfaith.Anysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedata
8、W川affecttheassessmentsandprojectionsshown.Todiscussthereportfurtherpleasecontact:HenryWorthington:hworthinatonOxfordEconomics4Millbank,LondonSW1P3JA,UKTel:+442039108000人OXFORDTABLEOFCONTENTSExecutivesummary11. Introduction42. Howweassesstheimpactofanonlineretailsalestax52.1 Analyticalframework52.2 P
9、olicyassumptions62.3 Forecastconditionsin202263. Theeconomicimpactofanonlineretailsalestax93.1 Declineinonlinesales93.2 Lossinconsumerwelfareandsuppliers*margins93.3 Revenue-equivalentalternatives124. Distributionalandenvironmentalimpactsoftheonlineretailsalestax134.1 Consumerwelfareimpactbyhousehol
10、dincomedeciles134.2 Impactontheelderlyandthedisabled154.3 Impactbysizeofbusiness164.4 Regionaldistributionofwelfareandmarginlosses174.5 Indicativeemploymentlosses194.6 Environmentalimpact215. Assessmentagainsttheprinciplesoftaxpolicy236. Conclusionsandkeyfindings25Appendix 1: Modellingapproachandmet
11、hodology27Appendix 2: Sensitivityanalysis37OXFORDECONOMICSEXECUTIVESUMMARYBACKGROUNDCONTEXTANDSTUDYMOTIVATIONOn27July2020,HMTreasury(HMT)announcedacallforevidencearoundtheissueofabusinessratesreview.1ContainedwithinthisdocumentwasaconsiderationofalternativetaxbasesthatcouldraiserevenuefortheExcheque
12、rtocompensateforanyshortfallthatmightbecreatedbybusinessratesreform.Thetwooptionsspecifiedwereacapitalvaluestaxpayablebythepropertyownerandanonlinesalestax(OST).ThedocumentinvitedbusinessestorespondtotheprospectofanOST.Inthiscontext,AmazonhavecommissionedOxfordEconomicstoproduceanindependentquantita
13、tiveassessmentoftheeconomicimplicationsoftheintroductionofsuchataxintheUK.Beyondtheaggregateimplicationsforfirms,consumersandgovernmentrevenuewehavealsoassessedthepotentialenvironmental,distributional,andregionalconsequencesofanOST.ASSUMPTIONSThecallforevidencedocumentprovidednoguidanceonthestructur
14、eofanyOSTbeyondsayingitwouldbeleviedononlinesalestoUK-basedcustomersandfocusedon,salesindirectcompetitionwiththosecarriedoutthroughphysicalpremises,2ForthepurposeofthisstudywehavemadethefollowingassumptionswithregardtothescaleandscopeoftheOST. Thetaxwouldbeimposedataflatadvaloremrateof2%. Thetaxwoul
15、dapplytoallretailsales(excludingautomotiveandfuel)andtoaselectionofB2Cservices:foodtakeaway,travelandaccommodation.Thetaxisintroducedin2022duringwhichperiodsocialdistancingpoliciesnolongerapply.Themodellingresultspresentedherearenaturallydependentontheseassumptions.Detailedresultsfromsensitivityanal
16、ysisaroundtheseassumptionscanbefoundinAppendix2ofthisdocument.KEYTERMSUSEDINTHISREPORT Theeconomicanalysissetoutinthisreportmeasurestheimpactonconsumersintermsofwelfareloss.Forconsumers,welfarefrommakingapurchaseismeasuredasthedifferencebetweenthemaximumamounttheconsumeriswillingtopayforthegoodorserviceandthepricethatisactuallypaid.
