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1、INVESTORSURVEYANDTRENDSREPORTU.S.SENIORLIVING&CARENOVEMBER2023PhotoprovidedbyNationalDevelopmentInthisreportOlKeyFindings02PropertyMarkets03CapitalMarkets04ValuationIndex05InvestorSurveyResults06SeniorsHousingOutlook/UlKEYFINDINGS U.S.seniorshousingpropertymarketfundamentalscontinuetoimprove.Stabili
2、zedoccupancytrendedupwardovertheprior10quarters,reaching86%,asrentgrowthremainedintactat5%throughthethirdquarterof2023.Cushman&Wakefieldexpectstoseecontinuedimprovementinpropertymarketfundamentals. Northeastmarketsareexpectedtoshowthestrongestnear-termperformance.MarketsintheSouthwestandSoutheastare
3、expectedtoexperiencedownwardpressureonoccupancyandrentgrowthintheneartermasnewsupplyisintroduced. Seculartailwindsarestrongerthanever,asconstructionstartstoslowtothelowestlevelssincetheGreatFinancialCrisis(GFC).Tomeetdemandatpeaklevels,supplygrowthmustincreaseby35,(XX)unitsperyear,beginningtoday. Af
4、fordabilityremainsunsolved.Withthenumberofmiddle-incomeseniorsprojectedtodoubleby2029,overhalfofthissegmentwillnothaveadequatefinancestoaffordtraditionalassistedliving. Operatorswilllearntoscale,andpartnershipsbetweenoperatingcompany(OpCo)andpropertycompany(PropCo)willevolve.Accelerationoftrendsandi
5、nnovationsintechnology;integratedcareandcaredeliverymodels;infrastructure;anddesignwithgreaterbranddiversificationarebeginningtoemerge. Thecostofdebtisstressingshort-termvaluations,withseniorlivingtransactionvolumedown51%year-over-year(YOY)zandthepriceperUn什，at$111,000,downnearly54%frompeakpricing.M
6、ostownersW计hwell-locatedpropertiesandhealthyoperatingperformanceareoptingnottosellduetothemarketdislocation.Skillednursingvolumewasdownonly17%,withthepriceperbedreachinganall-timehighof$109,500inthefirsthalfof2023.,Impendingloanmaturitiestotaling$16billion-expectedwithinthecoming24months,alongwithfu
7、nd-lifeexpirations,willcatalyzetransactionactivitywithincreasedinvestmentsfromthosewhoarewellcapitalizedandlessreliantonleverage. Cushman&Wakefieldsvaluationindexreportson$32billioninaggregatethird-partyvaluationscompletedoverthepast12months.Same-storeindicesextractedfromthisdatasetindicateaYOYincre
8、aseincapitalizationratesforseniorliving,rangingfrom75to125basispoints(bps),withvaluationsdecliningby12%to18%onaverage. Ofthemorethan90peoplewhoparticipatedinCushman&WakefieId1Sinvestorsurvey,68%expecttoseeacontinuedincreaseincapitalizationratesoverthenext12months,withdebtmarketliquiditybeingthetopco
9、ncernof51%oftherespondents. Mostinvestors(49%)aretargetingcore-plusinvestmentstrategies,followedbyassistedlivingat33%andactiveadultat23%.Nearly34%ofrespondentsarefocusedonopportunisticordistressedinvestmentstrategies. Marketparticipantsareunderwritingnegativeleverage:uptooneyearfor44%ofrespondentsan
10、duptotwoyearsfor31%ofrespondents.Still,19%ofsurveyrespondentsarenotwillingtounderwritenegativeleverageaspartoftheirinvestmentstrategy.Someinvestorsareelectingtopurchaseonanunleveredbasisasdebttermsforopportunisticbuysaredilutivetoreturns. Basispointspreadsbetweenthegoingincapitalizationrate,thedisco
11、untrateandterminalcapitalizationratehavecompressed,indicatingthatmarketparticipantsareexpectingtoseeimprovementinthecurrentinterestrateclimateoverafive-to10-yearholdingperiod. Environmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)considerationscontinuetogainnotorietyintheseniorshousingandcaresector,with59%ofsurveyr
12、espondentsviewingESGinitiativesasbeingapositiveattribute,butonly9%willingtoprovideapremiumtopricingwhereESGisprevalent.UZPROPERTYMARKETSPRIMARY MARKETSInventory GrowthAbsorption Stabilized OccupancyOCCUPANCYSeniorshousingperformancecontinuestoacceleratewithstabilizedoccupancytrendingupwardforthetent
13、hconsecutivequarter.TheNationalInvestmentCenterforSeniorsHousing&Care(NIC)reportedstabilizedoccupancyat86%forprimarymarketsand87%forsecondarymarketsforthethirdquarterof2023.Thoughtrendinginapositivedirection,theselevelsremainwellbelowpre-pandemicaveragesof90%and90.2%,respectively.ASKINGRENTALTRENDST
14、herateofannualrentgrowthreachedanall-timehighinthesecondquarterof2023,at5.9%inprimarymarketsand5.9%insecondarymarkets,whichtaperedslightlyinthethirdquarterto5.4%and5.6%respectively.Assistedlivingmarkedthehighestrentgrowthat6.4%,withrentgrowthforindependentlivingaveraging5.2%.Recentvaluationsconducte
15、dbyCushman&Wakefieldhaveidentifiedannualrentgrowthinthe7%to9%rangeinkeymarketsthroughouttheU.S.SUJ。,JoqEn10,OOO5,00-5,000MHMBJ*kMmULllLbfeMlbfi-10,000AQUOdnOOOPaZ三qasCccccc8-8-ZoZoeLoo-Oeoe00088-60Nco6-020-8一。Com58-zo09一。臂9三CxlO-SON0COSLOSOLFoeoeFOmL8oeggo0Z-OZ:0coZ-c-Source:Cushmon&VVakefieJdResearch.NICMAPsronzQ32023SECONDARYMARKETSs*uJQ-lquJN0306HOSoSOeoe0coOzo30L6oeco6oe0L8一OeoeogNONOCOZOCSI0L9oNg9-0oLSLooeS-OSeLq5eoeg5eoe20aeoNOcodo-ABSORPTIONAbsorptionhasoutpacedinventorygrowthfornineconsecutiveq
