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1、OXORDDoWn-Oadedfromh=psacadem6bupbomerrtQe2225396500315bygues-On07MarCh2024Socio-EconomicReview,2022lVol.20,No.21539-559doi:10.1093sermwab061AdvanceAccessPublicationDate:7January2022ArticleArticleTheeconomicconsequencesofmajortaxcutsfortherichDavidHope*andJulian1.imberg)DepartmentofPoliticalEconomy,
2、KingsCollege1.ondon,1.ondonWC2B4PX,UK*Correspondence:david.hopekcl.ac.ukAbstractThelast50yearshasseenadramaticdeclineintaxesontherichacrosstheadvanceddemocracies.Thereisstillferventdebateinbothpoliticalandacademiccircles,however,abouttheeconomicconsequencesofthissweepingchangeintaxpolicy.Thisarticle
3、contributestothisdebatebyutilizinganewlyconstructedindicatoroftaxesontherichtoidentifyallinstancesofmortaxreductionsontherichin18OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countriesbetween1965and2015.Wethenestimatetheaverageeffectsofthesemajortaxreformsonkeymacroeconomicaggregates.Wefind
4、taxcutsfortherichleadtohigherincomeinequalityinboththeshort-andmedium-term.Incontrast,suchreformsdonothaveanysignificanteffectoneconomicgrowthorunemployment.Ourresultsthereforeprovidestrongevidenceagainsttheinfluentialpolitical-economicideathattaxcutsfortherich,trickledowntoboostthewidereconomy.Keyw
5、ords：taxation,inequality,incomedistribution,economicgrowth,unemploymentJE1.classification:D31personalincome,wealth,andtheirdistributions,E62fiscalpolicy,047empiricalstudiesofeconomicgrowth,aggregateproductivity,cross-untryoutputconvergence1. IntroductionThepasthalfcenturyhasbeenaperiodofsubstantialc
6、hangeintaxpolicyintheadvanceddemocracies(Steinmo,2003;KiserandKarceski,2017).AparticularlyprominentpartofthistransformationhasbeenthedramaticfallintaxesontherichacrosstheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countries(Ganghof2006;Hopeand1.imberg,2021).Whilethissweepingpolicychangeha
7、sbeenwelldocumented,itsconsequencesfortheeconomyarelesswellunderstood.Proponentsofthetaxcutsfortherichoftenarguefortheirbeneficialeffectsoneconomicperformance.Thislineofreasoning,focusingonefficiencygainsandtheremovalOfbehavioraldistortions,hasbeencentraltotheargumentsmadeforseveralmajortaxreformsin
8、theUSAVTheAuthor(三)2022.PublishedbyOxfordUniversityPressandtheSocietyfortheAdvancementofSocio-Economics.ThisisanOpenAccessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreatiVs:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-n4.0),whichpermitsnon-commercialre-use,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalwo
9、rkispropertycited.Forcommercialre-use,pleasecontactjournals.permissions(AuerbachandSlemrod,1997;Bartels,2005;GaleandSamwick,2017).Therearefewmacro-levelempiricalstudiesexploringtherelationshipbetweentaxesontherichandeconomicperformance,however,andtheevidencewedohaveismixed.Whilesomestudiesfindhigher
10、topmarginalincometaxratesandtaxprogressivityadverselyaffecteconomicgrowth(PadovanoandGalli,2002;Gemmelleta1.,2014),anumberofotherstudies11ndnosignificantassociation(1.eeandGordon,2005;Angelopoulosetal.,2007;P汰ettyetal.,2014).Ontheothersideofthedebate,manyopponentsoftaxcutsforthericharguethattheysimp
11、lyfurtherconcentrateincomeinthehandsoftheaffluent.ThepioneeringworkofPikettyandco-authorschartingtheevolutionoftopincomesoverthecourseofthe20thcenturyhasshownthatreductionsintaxprogressivityinrecentdecadeshavegonehand-in-handwithsoaringincomeinequality,especiallyintheAnglo-Saxoncountries(Atkinsonand
12、Piketty,2007;Alvaredoetal.,2013;Piketty,2014).Thisissupportedbyevidencefromcross-countrypanelstudiesthathavefoundthatlowertaxesontherich,especiallytopmarginalincometaxrates,arestronglyassociatedwithrisingtopincomeshares(Roineetal.,2009;VolschoandKelly,2012;Pikettyetal.,2014;Huberetal.,2019).Giventhe
13、lackofconsensusinexistingempiricalanalyzesandthedifficultiesofmakingcausalinferencesfrommacro-levelpaneldataanalyzes,itremainsanopenempiricalquestionhowcuttingtaxesontherichaffectseconomicoutcomes.Webelievethequestionisbestansweredbylookingattheeffectsofmajortaxcutspackages,asthestoryoftaxingtherich
14、intheadvanceddemocraciesoverthepast50yearsisoneofdiscreteandstarkchangesinpolicy.Forexample,RonaldReaganimplementedtwomajorpackagesoftaxcutsfortherichinhistimeintheWhiteHouse,onein1981andanotherin1986.Asimilarpatternoflarge,infrequenttaxcutscharacterizedThatcherstaxreformsintheUK,aswellasreformtraje
15、ctoriesinmanyotheradvanceddemocracies(seeSection3).Focusingontheeffectsofindividualreformsalsoallowsustoapplyanewstatisticalapproachforcausalinferenceinobservationalstudiesthatappliesanovelmatchingmethodtopooledtimeseriesdata.Thisisparticularlypertinentinthiscase,asthereisalargeliteratureonthepowero
16、frichvotersandorganizedbusinessintereststoshapepublicpolicies(includingtaxpolicies)intheirfavor(Gilens,2005;Bartels,2009;HackerandPierson,2010;Svallfors,2016;EmmeneggerandMarx,2019),whichsuggestsreversecausalitycouldbeamajorissueinempiricalstudieslackingaclearidentificationstrategy.Thereareonlyahandfulofexistingmacro-levelstudiesexploringtheeconomicconsequencesofspecifictaxcutsfortherichandtheirexternalvalidi
