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1、11ntroductionTheupdatetotheEuropeanUnion,sfiscalrulesagreedinFebruary2024willchangefundamentallytheplanningandsurveillanceofthefiscalpoliciesofEUcountriesAgreementonthenewrulesis,attimeofwriting,stillsubjecttoratificationbytheCounciloftheEUandtheEuropeanParliament;seeCounciloftheEUpressreleaseof10Fe
2、bruary2024(updated21February),Tconomicgovernancereview:CouncilandParliamentstrikedealonreformoffiscalrules,releases/2024/02/1(Vecotomiuqovernancejeviewgiinciband-DarIiamentSmkedeal-on-refo11-of-fiscal-rules/.Underthenewframework,theEuropeanCommissionwillissuetoEUcountriesfour-to-sevenyearreferencetr
3、ajectoriesintendedtoshowhowtheyshouldbringtheirspendingGovernmentexpenditurenetofinterestspending,cyclicalunemploymentspending,discretionrevenuemeasures,EU-fundednationalspending,co-financingofEUprogrammesandone-offs.undercontrol-orintechnicalterms,ensuringtheirpublicdebtsareonaplausiblydownwardpath
4、(orremainingbelow60percentofGDP),asdeterminedbyacountry-specificdebtsustainabilityanalysis(DSA)augmentedbynumericalsafeguardsSeeAnnex1forthefournumericalsafeguardrequirements.EUcountrieswillsubsequentlysubmitmedium-termfiscal-structuralplans(MTFSPs),whichtheCommissionwillevaluate.Iftheseincluderefor
5、msandpublicinvestmentthatmeetcertaincriteria-suchasbeinggrowth-enhancingandsupportiveoffiscalsustainability,andraisinginvestmentoverthemediumterm-theywouldjustifyanextensionoftheadjustmentperiodfromfourtosevenyears.Totheextentthattheseplansareexecutedandinfluenceproductivitygrowth,thecapitalstockand
6、laboursupply,theywouldalsoimpactthefuturedebtpath.ThisP如erproposesanapproachforquantifyingthisimpactandintegratingitintothenewframework,takingintoaccountuncertaintyabouttheimplementationofreformsandtheireconomiceffects.Akeycomponentofthisapproachisthedevelopmentofaquantitativemethodologythatquantifi
7、esthereformandinvestmentsimpacts.Developingsuchamethodologyisimportantfortworeasons.First,countriesthatsucceedinobtaininganextensionoftheadjustmentperiodwilllikelyarguethattheirproposedreformsandinvestmentsjustifyless-stringentadjustmentthanenvisagedintheCommissionsreferencetrajectory(whichprecedest
8、heMTFSPs,andhencedoesnottakeintoaccountnewreforms),Thisraisesthequestionofhowthetrade-offbetweenpromisedreforms/investmentandfiscaladjustmentshouldbequantified.Second,whilethereferencetrajectoriesdonottakeintoaccounttheimpactofproposedreforms,theydotrytotakeintoaccounttheimpactofrecentreforms.Howeve
9、r,someofthisimpactmaynotyetbeobservable-because,forexample,reformshaveonlyjustbeenadopted-raisingmuchthesamemethodologicalproblemsasassessingtheimpactofpromisedreforms.Wepayparticularattentiontosocialinvestments,definedasreformsandincreasesinpublicspendingthatpursuesocialobjectivesForexample,increas
10、edlabour-marketparticipation,accesstoqualityeducationandtraining,reductionandpreventionofpovertyrisks.andarealsoexpectedtoraiseeconomicgrowth.Thegrowth-enhancingeffectcouldmaterialisethroughtheimpactofsocialinvestmentsonhumancapitalandproductivity,includingviastrongerinnovativecapacityandabsorptiono
11、fnewtechnologies,and/orlaboursupply.Forexample,investmentsinchildcarecanraisetheIaboUrS叩ply;improvementsineducationandtrainingcanboostproductivityandgrowth;andreformsandinvestmentsinpublicemploymentservicescanimprovejobmatching,therebyincreasingoutput.However,notallincreasesinsocialoreducationalspen
12、dingaregoodforgrowth.Althoughsuchincreasesmightbevaluable,wewouldnotregardthemassocialinvestments.Inmanycases,itisdiffculttodecideexantewhethersocialspendingshouldqualifyassocialinvestment.Butforthepurposesofreflectingtheimpactofsocialspendingonthedebtsustainabilityanalyses,noex-anteclassificationis
13、necessary.Increasesinsocialspendingthatareproposedaspartofaninvestmentorreformplanwouldbeevaluatedfortheirgrowthimpacts,justlikeanyotherreformandinvestmentproposal.ThequestionofWhethersocialspendingqualifiesassocialinvestmentcanbeansweredexpost,basedonthisevaluationAnex-antedefinitionofsocialinvestm
14、entwouldberequired,however,tocomparesocialinvestmentsacrosscountriesandtoundertakeresearchontheimpactofinvestmentslabelledassocial.Againstthisbackground,wefocusonfourissues.First,wesummarisetheincentivesforreformsandinvestmentsinthenewfiscalframeworkandevaluatetheirlikelyeffectiveness.Second,werevie
15、wthecurrentpracticeofincorporatingreformandinvestmentimpactsintheDSA.Third,weprovidethreequantitativeexamplesofsocialinvestmentsandreformsandevaluatetheirimpactsonfiscaladjustmentneedsbyinsertingtheirexpectedgrowtheffectsintotheDSA;ourexamplesare:（八）achildcarepolicytoboostlaboursupply,(b)apolicytoin
16、creasethequalityofeducation,and(c)alabourmarketpolicyaimedatincreasingtheshareofhigh-skilledworkers.Finally,werecommendaconservative叩PrOaChtoincorporatingtheimpactsofplannedreformsandinvestmentsintothegrowthtrajectoriesunderpinningDSAswithinthenewfiscalgovernanceframeworkoftheEU,andwediscussoptionsforagovernancestructure.2IncentivesforreformsandinvestmentsintheEU,snewfiscalframeworkUnderthenewfiscalframeworkcentredoncountry-specificdebtsustainabilityanalysis(D
