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1、焉牌需尴霭般Q4 2021短嬴Und Banking OutlookMacro:MarketsGFBOutlookReportQ42021714StrongDespiteLoomingConcernsEcosystemcapitakAwashWithCapitalSpotlight:ESGandNFTs17Liquidity:InvestorsReapBenefitsFromExitssvbKristy TriesteVOICESFROMTHECoMMUNITYFoundingpartner,CFOandCCOofMotivePartners,offershertakeonsixsuccess
2、factorsforaPE/VCfirmexperiencingrapidgrowth.Page13GLOBALFUNDBANKINGOUTLOOK:Q420212IntroductionBymostmeasures,2021hasbeenarecordyearfortheprivateequity(PE)andventurecapital(VC)ecosystems.Fundsraised,capitalinvestedanddrypowderhavealleclipsedpreviouspeaks.Whileconcernsovermarketfactorssuchasspikinginf
3、lationandthepotentialforrisingratescontinuetoloom,theyhaventslowedthespinoftheprivatecapitalflywheel.1.imitedpartners*(LPs)appetiteforPEandVChastickedup,asevidencedbytheincreasedallocationstotheseassetclassesandnewLPentrantsintothespaceallbuoyedbycontinuedlowinterestratesandstrongprivatemarketreturn
4、s.Thistrendhasallowedfundmanagerstocomebacktomarketmorequickly,whilesimultaneouslyraisinglargerfunds,oftenclosingabovetheirtargets.ThisisespeciallytrueforIate-StageVCandgrowthfunds,inadditiontofundstargetinghotsectorssuchasclimatetechandfintech.ThistorridpaceoffundraisinghasseenmanyLPshittheirtarget
5、assetallocationthresholdsearlierthanusualthisyear;however,weexpecttoseethefundraisingtrendtowardalternativescontinueint22.Ontheliquidityfront,IPOsaredominatingtheexitmarkets,whileM&Aandbuyoutdealsareontracktooutpacelastyear,slull.Weexpectthispaceofactivitytocontinue,asampledrypowderonthesidelinesisr
6、eadytobedeployed.Withtheinnovationeconomycontinuingtomarchonatahealthyclip,weatSVBarehopefulforthefutureasweheadintothenewyear.JesseHurleyHeadofGlobalFundBankingSiliconValleyBankMacroMarketsStrongDespite1.oomingConcernsInflation MightUSCPIChangeYear-Over-Year(YoY)jUS10-YearandUSVCInvestmentSince1990
7、1,2BeInflated?Inflationhascontinuedtotickup,withincreasesintheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)reaching5%+year-over-year,amarknotseensincetheglobalfinancialcrisis.Theheadlinenumberhascausedsomeinvestorjittersovertheeconomyoverheating,risinginterestrates,stockmarketshocksandmore.InourDreViOIJSreDort,86%ofCFOso
8、fbuyoutfundssurveyedwereworriedabouteitherorbothrisinginflationandinterestrates,while64%ofCFOsforgrowthfundssurveyedfeltthesame.Whiletheheadlinefigureiseye-grabbing,whenlookingattheunderlyingdrivers,itsclearthatthecurrentlevelofinflationisintimatelytiedtoeventsofthepast18months,fromglobalsupplychain
9、shockstoincreaseddemandforautos.Thislinkhasledsomefolks,includingtheFederalReserveBoard,tolabelthecurrenttrendastransitory,withtheFedsignalingitwontraiseratesuntilmid-2022oncethingsreturntonormal.Whilehigherinflationwillhavesomeknock-oneffectsforfirmsnamely,updatingforecastsforhigherinputcostsandpay
10、ingcloserattentiontodebtmetricsandcashflowtherearesomesilverlinings.First,theriseinpricesisanindicationtheglobaleconomyisrecovering.Evenifhigherinflationthatleadstohigherrates,investorswontnecessarilyturnablindeyetotheinnovationeconomyorthepublicmarkets.Theventureecosystemhasdemonstratedstrongfundra
11、isingandinvestmenttrendsduringsuchperiods.Furthermore,overthepast20rising10-yearcycles,theS&P500hasdeliveredpositivereturns75%ofthetime.USCPI-$20BUS10-YearTreasuryYieldUSVCInvestmentUSBearMarket-2%19901992199419961998200020022004USCPIChangeYoYforSelectCategoriesCPIexcl.Food,Shelter,EnergyandUsedCars
12、&TrucksEnergyCPI一UsedCars&TrucksCPI50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%r-6台广-6W5SClQocmocmocjocm当mCWQCQ.20062008201020122014201620182020FederalReserveExpectationsforRateHikes:Rate33.00%2.75%2.50%2.25%2.00%1.75%1.50%1.25%1.00%0.75%0.50%0.25%,0.00%202220232024svbNotes:1)USVCinvestmentincludesCorporateandPrivateE
13、quityGrowthdeals.2)USCPIYoYandUSIO-YearTreasuryyielddataaremonthly,whileUSVCinvestmentisquarterly.3)FederalFundsTargetRate.Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics,FederalReserve.PitchBook1S&PCapitalIQandSVBanalysis.PrivateAssetsDeliverS&P500AnnualReturns1ComparedtoPrivateMarketReturnsStrongReturnsS&P500Ann
14、ualReturnVentureCapitalInternalRateofReturn(IRR)byVintageYearPrivateEquity2IRRbyVintageYear40%Publicmarketsperformedstronglyin2020andthroughthefirstthreequartersof2021.Thelooseningofquarantinerestrictionsreleasedpent-upconsumerspending,plusdemanddrivenbythemassiveshifttoremoteworkhelpedpushtheeconom
15、ytowardrecovery.Lookingbackfurther,whilepublicmarketshaveperformedwell,privatemarketreturnshavetypicallyoutpacedpublicreturns.Thistrendalongwiththecontinuedlowinterestrateenvironment-hasdrawninnewsourcesofcapitalandpushedexistinglimitedpartnerstouptheirallocationinsearchofyield.ConsiderUScollegeendowments,whichtendtoholdhigherprivateequityallocations(inclusiveofventurecapital)r
