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1、November2023McKhiseyQuarterlyAnewwaytodecarbonizebuildingscanloweremissionsprofitablyAnAl-informedapproachmakesitfaster,easier,andcheapertodecarbonizerealestate.Here,show.ThisarticleisacollaborativeeffortbyBrodieBoland,DanielCramer,AlastairGreen,DaryaGuettler,FockoImhorst,andMaritaWinSlade,represent
2、ingviewsfromMcKinsey,RealEstatePractice.Realestatecompaniesareincreasinglyacceptingtheimperativetodecarbonizebuildings,buttheyfrequentlyfindthetaskdifficult,laborious,andexpensive.Ownerswithportfoliosofmanyuniquebuildingsoftenhavenocentralizedinventorythatindicatestheconditionsinsideorthetypesofequi
3、pmenttheycontain.Whafsmore,physicalenergyauditsandbuilding-by-buildingnet-zeroplansarelengthy,costly,andenjoynobenefitsofscale.Duetotheselimitations,thetraditionalapproachtodecarbonizationhascreatedawidespreadimpressionthatdecarbonizingbuildingsissignificantlyunprofitable.Butthankstoimprovementsinth
4、equantityandqualityofdataandanalyticmethods,thereisabetterapproach.Itisnowpossibletouseacombinationofdatafromsatellites,geospatialanalytics,regulations,laborandequipmentcosts,buildingcharacteristics,energy,andothersourcestorapidlycreateahigh-fidelitypictureofthecurrentstateofanindividualbuildingwith
5、outeversteppingfootinside.Byapplyingmachinelearning,Al,andphysics-basedmodeling,portfolioownerscanquicklyidentifybuildingdecarbonizationopportunities.Thisincludesthecurrenttypeandestimatedcapacityofheatingandcoolingsystems,thesite-specificpotentialforsolarorgeothermalpower,andwhereinsulationandeffic
6、iencylevelsaresubstandard.Advancedevolutionaryoptimizationalgorithmscanthendeterminetheoptimalsetofsolutionsandsequenceofactionsforeachbuilding-andtheportfolioasawholetoreachnetzeroonagiventimeline.Thesecapabilitiescanquicklygenerateasetoffinanciallyoptimizedplansforeachbuildinginaportfoliobasedonth
7、ebuilding/suniquestartingpoint,regulatoryenvironment,leasestructure,andmanyotherfactors.Theseplans-whichcanbegeneratedforafullportfolioinamatterofweeks-canincludeasetoftime-boundactions,associatedcapitalcosts,anddocumentationoftheeffectonemissionsandoperatingcosts.Forlargeportfolios,thisnovelapproac
8、htoreachingnetzerorepresentsamorethan100-foldincreaseinthepaceandscaleofdecarbonizationplanningcomparedwiththetraditionalapproachofconductingenergyauditsandnet-zerostudies.Italsoeliminatestheneedtorelyonvaguebuildingarchetypesorgeneralmarginalabatementcostcurves,whichoftenleadtopoorerplansandhigherc
9、osts.Thissystemyieldsspecific,detailed,actionableplanswithfasterabatementandbettereconomics.Bydevelopingthefullpathtonetzero,realestateorganizationscanplanaheadinsteadofreacting.Theycanintegratedecarbonizationcostinsightswhendecidingwhichbuildingstomoveintooracquire.Becausethisnewapproachcanrapidlyg
10、enerateaplanforeverybuilding,ownersandoccupierscandecidewheretoinvestlimitedcapitalandcoordinateequipmentprocurement,design,andprojectmanagementtominimizecosts.Additionally,ownerscanaggregatebuilding-levelplansacrosstheportfoliotodevelopcapitalplansandreporting.Building-Ievelplansforenergyefficiency
11、andelectrificationallowownersandoccupierstoestimateandprocurerequiredvolumesofrenewablepower,increasethepotentialtotakeadvantageofgovernmentincentives,andmakebuildingmanagersjobseasier.Thisarticlebeginsbyexploringtheimportanceofadoptingamoreefficientwaytodecarbonizebuildings.Next,Wedescribehowthisne
12、wapproachoftenmakesitpossibleforrealestateportfoliostoachievenetzeroatanetpresentvalue(NPV)thatisneutraltopositive.Forexample,Wehighlightacompanythatrecentlydevelopedanet-zeropathwayplanthat,sprojectedtocostroughly$85millionlessthanatraditional-approachplanwouldhavecost.Finally,wedescribethesevenfea
13、turesofacrediblebuildingdecarbonizationplan.Decarbonizationeffortsarechallenging,butafaster,moreeconomicalwayofaccomplishingtherealestateindustry,sdecarbonizationgoalsprovidesanopportunitytomeaningfullyaccelerateactionsrequiredtolimitglobalwarming.Buildingowners,operators,andoccupiershaveobligations
14、todecarbonizeTherealestateindustryaccountsforapproximately40percentofglobalcombustion-relatedemissions,ofwhich28percentagepointscomefrombuildingoperationsand12fromembodiedcarbonthatis,emissionsfrombuildingmaterialsandconstruction(Exhibitl).2022 Global status report for buildings and construction, Un
15、ited Nations Environment Programme, November 9, 2022.Tokeepglobalwarmingwithinapproximately1.5Candtoreachanet-zero-carbonbuildingstockby2050,theIEAestimatesdirectbuildingemissions(suchasfromonsitegasoroilboilers)willneedtobereducedby50percentandindirectemissionsbyExhibit1Thirty-sevenpercentofglobale
16、nergyemissionsarerelatedtobuildings,with28percentagepointsofthatduetobuildingoperations.Global energy and process emissions by source, 2021, %Building operations (direct)Building operations (indirect)OtherindustryTransportationOtherBuilding construction industry Other nstr ction2i8 37Source:UNEP2022GlobalStatusReportforBuildingsandGxistruction60percent(forexample,throughenergyefficiencymeasuresandgriddecarbonization)by2030.2uBuil
