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1、McKinsey&CompanyAnaffordable,reliable,competitivepathtonetzeroAuthorsMekalaKrishnanHumayunTaiDanielPacthodSvenSmitTomasNaucIerBlakeHoughtonJesseNoffsingerDirkSimon*EditorBenjaminPlotinskyNovember2023ContentsAtaglance2Therehasbeenmeaningfulmomentumtowardnetzero4Nevertheless,theworldisnotontracktoreac
2、hnetzeroby20505Apoorlyexecutedtransitioncouldcompromiseaffordability,reliability,andcompetitivenessandslowprogresstowardnetzero9Awell-managedtransitionwouldfollowsevenprinciples14Anillustrationshowshowfollowingthoseprinciplescouldacceleratetheworldscurrenttrajectory36Embracingachangeofmindsetcanhelp
3、theworldmoveclosertoitsnet-zerogoals41Cover image: Sam Falner All interior images: Getty ImagesCopyright 2023McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Confidential and proprietary. Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company ISStrictIyprohibited.Technicalappendix43Acknowl
4、edgments46Ataglance-Thoughtherehasbeenmeaningfulmomentum,theworldisnotontracktoachievethegoalenshrinedintheParisAgreementoflimitingwarmingtowellbelow2orideally1.5.Tomeetthatgoal,countriesandcompanieshavecommittedtoreachingnet-zeroemissionsofCO2andreducingemissionsofothergreenhousegases.Buttherehasno
5、tbeenenoughprogress.Theshareofprimaryenergyproducedbyrenewablesources,forexample,hasrisenslowly,from8percentin2010to12percentin2021.Ifemissionsstayontheircurrenttrajectory,estimatesfromvarioussourcessuggest,netzerowouldnotarriveevenbytheendofthecentury.- Asuccessfulnet-zerotransitionwillrequireachie
6、vingnotoneobjectivebutfourinterdependentones:emissionsreduction,affordability,reliability,andindustrialcompetitiveness.Apoorlyexecutedtransitioncouldmakeenergy,materials,andotherproductslessaffordable,compromisingeconomicempowerment.Itcouldalsomakethesupplyofenergyandmaterialslesssecureandresilient,
7、anditcouldrendersomecountriesandcompanieslesscompetitive.Ifthathappened,progresstowardnetzeroitselfcouldstall.- Ourresearchhasfoundpracticalwaystoaddressthoseobjectivessimultaneously.Sevenprinciplescanhelpstakeholderssuccessfullynavigatethenextphaseofthetransition.Forexample,deployinglower-costsolut
8、ionsanddrivingdownthecostofmoreexpensiveonescouldbolsteraffordability.Managingexistingandemergingenergysystemsinparallelcouldmakeaccesstoenergymorereliable.Seekingopportunitiesbyusingcomparativeadvantageasaguidecouldhelpcountriesbolstertheircompetitiveness.- Followingthoseprinciplescouldsubstantiall
9、yimprovetheworldscurrenttrajectory.Weexaminedthepotentialimplicationsofapplyingtwoprinciples:deployingmorelower-costsolutionsandusingR&Dandothermeasurestodoubletheexpectedrateofcostdeclines.Ourillustrativeanalysesfoundthatdoingsocouldsubstantiallyimprovethecurrenttrajectoryofemissionsandhelplimitwar
10、mingtowhattheParisAgreementenvisions.Capitalspendingonlow-emissionstechnologieswouldpotentiallybeoneandahalftotwotimesaslargeasitisnowasopposedtoaboutthreetimes,asmightbethecaseifthetwoprincipleswereappliedlessextensively.- Embracingachangeofmindsetcanhelptheworldmoveclosertonetzero,inadditiontoglob
11、alcommitmentstoreachnetzerointhefuture,stakeholdersshouldcommittomakingmoreandmoreprogresseveryyearanddoingsoinawaythataddressesallfourobjectives.IntroductionToday,theworldisundertakingthenet-zerotransition,anambitiousefforttoreachnet-zeroemissionsofCO2andreduceemissionsofothergreenhousegases(GHGs).
12、ThegoalofthetransitionisoutlinedintheParisAgreementadoptedattheUnitedNationsin2015：tolimitglobalwarmingabovepreindustriallevelstowellbelow2.0oC,andideallyto1.5.Doingsowouldreducetheoddsofinitiatingthemostcatastrophicimpactsofclimatechange. See Global worming of 1.5X, Intergovernmental Panel on Clima
13、te Change (IPCC), 2018.AccordingtotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),limitingwarmingto1.50CwouldrequirereducingGHGemissionsby43percentbetween2019and2030andcuttingnetemissionsofCO2tozerobyaround2050. Climate change 2022: Mitigation of climate change, IPCC, 2022.,See Technical dialogue of
14、the first global stocktake: Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, September 2023.ButtheefforttomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreementisnotcurrentlyontrack,asarecentreportfromtheUnitedNationsshows?Manypublicandprivateactors,
15、aspiringtomeetthosegoals,areworkingtousherinthetransitionsnextphase,oneinwhichmorecapitalflowstowardthetransitionandthedeploymentofnecessarytechnologiesexpandssubstantially.Often,thetransitionisenvisionedasasinglegreatchallenge:reducingemissionsfromenergy,materials,andland-useandothersystems.Inpract
16、ice,itconsistsoffourobjectives:emissionsreduction,affordability,reliability,andindustrialcompetitiveness. Affordability is a particularly important priority. Recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) has found that 4.7 billion people are not yet economically empoweredthat is, they cannot meet essential needs and begin to achieve financial security. For
