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1、HIGHLIGHTS Developing Asias outlook remains solid despite global challenges. The 2023 growth forecast is revised up from Asian Development Outlook September2023,s projection, to 4.9% from 4.7%, on robust domestic demand. The 2024 forecast is maintained at 4.8%. East Asia,s growth forecast for 2023 i
2、s revised up to 4.7% on higher-than- epected third quarter growth in the People,s Republic of China. The forecast for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%. South Asias projection is revised up to 5.7% for 2023, driven by Stronger- than-expected growth in India, and is unchanged at 6.0% for 2024. Growth foreca
3、sts for Southeast Asia are revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7% for 2024, mainly on weak external demand. The Caucasus and Central Asias 2023 outlook has improved, with growth now forecast at 4.8% primarily on expecutions Offastergrowth in Kazakhstan. The 2024 forecast is revised down slightly to
4、4.6%. The Pacifics growth projections are unchanged at 3.5% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, on the continued recovery of international tourism and the resumption of public infrastructure projects. Developing Asia,s inflation is forecast to decline from 4.4% last year to a downward-adjusted 3.5% this yea
5、r, before rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024. Downside risks are mainly associated with higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced economies, which could trigger financial instability. Possible supply disruptions from El Ninoand the Russian invasion of Ukraine could renew energy and food security cha
6、llenges, and rekindle inflation.ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOKDECEMBER2023GROWTHUPBEAT5PRICEPRESSURESEASINGRecentDevelopmentsDevelopingAsiasgrowthhasbeenupbeatthisyeardespitepersistentheadwinds.Healthydomesticdemand,strongremittances,andrecoveringtourismareunderpinningeconomicactivity,whichcontinuedtoexpan
7、devenasinflationmoderated.Thesedrivers。仟Setthedragfromslowerglobalgrowthandthelaggedeffectsofmonetarypolicytightening,andtheyareexpectedtocontinuefosteringgrowthintheregionnextyear.Variousfactorsweighontheoutlook,however,includinghigher-for-longerglobalinterestrates,propertymarketweaknessinthePeople
8、,sRepublicofChina(PRC),andsofterdemandfromadvancedeconomies.Theeconomicperformanceinthemajoradvancedeconomieshasdiverged,andoilpricesremainvolatile.ThelikelihoodofasoftlandingintheUnitedStateshasincreased.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)intheUScontinuedtoexpandinthefirsthalfof2023andsurprisedontheupsideint
9、hethirdquarter(Q3).Growthacceleratedtoaseasonallyadjustedannualizedrate(saar)of5.2%inthequarter,spurredbyarapidincreaseinspendingongoodsandservices(box).Despiteatightlabormarket,headlineinflationcontinuedtodecelerate,slowingto3.2%inOctober,andpersonalconsumptionexpenditureinflationfellto3.0%inthesam
10、emonth.Coreinflation,however,hasdeceleratedmoreslowlyTheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)RegionalEconomicOutlookTaskForceledthepreparationofarevisedoutlookforthisAsianDevelopmentOutlook.ThetaskforceischairedbytheEconomicResearchandDevelopmentImpactDepartmentandincludesrepresentativesoftheCentralandWestAsiaD
11、epartment,EastASiaDepartment,PacificDepartment,SouthAsiaDepartment,andSoutheastAsiaDepartment.ADBplaceditsregularassistancetoAfghanistanonholdeffective15August2021.EffectiveIFebruary2021,ADBplacedatemporaryholdonsovereignprojectdisbursementsandnewcontractsinMyanmar.ADRand,at4.0%,isstilldoubletheFede
12、ralReserve,s2.0%targetIncontrasttothebuoyantUSeconomy,growthintheeuroarea,whileremainingpositiveintheyeartodate,hasslowed.Growthinthecurrencyunioncontractedby0.4%saarinQ3,depressedbyhighinterestratesandstickyinflation.LeadingindicatorsofeconomicactivitysuggestcontinuedweaknessinQ4acrosstheeuroarea,s
13、majoreconomies.Japansmodestrecoveryintourismandserviceswasoffsetbysubduedprivateinvestment,causingtheeconomytostagnateinQ3.OilpriceswerevolatileinOctoberfollowingtheonsetofthecurrentconflictintheMiddleEast.TheBrentcrudeoilpriceroseto$94.39/barrelon19Octoberbutfellbelow$80/barrelinthesecondhalfofNove
14、mber,asconcernsoverslowingglobaldemandoutweighedtheriskoftheconflictescalating.GrowthindevelopingAsiaacceleratedto5.0%intheyeartodate,buoyedbythePRCscontinuedpost-pandemicreopeningandhealthydomesticdemandacrosstheregion(Figure1).StrongservicescontinuetobethemaindriverofgrowthinthePRC,offsettingadown
15、turninthepropertysector.Supportedbypolicymeasurestosustainconsumption,industry,andthehousingmarket,growthpickeduptoafaster-than-expected4.9%inQ3.ThePRCeconomyexpandedby5.2%inthefirst3quartersoftheyear,upfrom3.0%forthewholeof2022,despitethedragfromtheproperty-marketcorrection.Indiasgrowthalsoaccelera
16、ted,to7.1%inthefirst3quartersofthecalendaryear,drivenbystrongindustrialproductionandinvestment.Theboostfrompost-pandemicreopeninginmostSoutheastAsianeconomiesiswaning,andmerchandisegoodsexportsfromhigh-incometechnologyexportersremainssubduedalthoughtheyhavestabilized.Purchasingmanagers,indexes(PMIs)suggestthatmanufacturinginseveraloftheregion,sexport-orientedeconomieswasstillmutedinOctober(TableI).PMIsstayedbelow50theindexthresholdindicatin
